Well ahead of the 1996 election that saw the Keating government swept from office, then Queensland’s Labor premier Wayne Goss warned that voters were sitting on their verandas with baseball bats for his federal colleagues.

The latest batch of opinion polls provide no evidence that the Albanese government is heading for the same fate.

The respected Newspoll finds after preferences the contest is 50-50 between Labor and the Coalition, broadly in line with the past six months that wax and wane between tight and exceptionally tight results.

Polling analyst Kevin Bonham makes the point that no respected commentator would report on only one poll because a more accurate picture is gained from comparing the aggregate of all the published polls and tracking their movements.

Minority government likely

Bonham’s analysis gives Labor the edge, which is in line with Newspoll’s finding that most voters believe the next election will deliver a Labor minority government with an outside chance the Coalition could achieve the same result.

The roadblock for the Liberals are the independents, who account for the 11 per cent result nationally for “others” in the Newspoll.

Senior Labor people aren’t panicking.

There is plenty of precedent of governments struggling in the last year of the parliamentary term and then going on to win.

The general view in the parliamentary Labor party and the organisation is when voters are faced with making a choice between what is on offer from the government and its alternative, they will be offered nothing credibly enticing by Peter Dutton.

No solutions

Playing to the opposition’s advantage at the moment is the luxury of being able to define the problem without having to do anything about it.

We got a taste of it in the first question from Dutton after the five-week parliamentary break.

The Liberal leader accused Anthony Albanese of breaking a promise to cut electricity bills, “to provide cheaper mortgages and to ensure families will be better off on the cost of living”.

Dutton said the price of electricity is up by 22 per cent, there have been 12 mortgage rate hikes on Labor’s watch, and the prices of food and groceries are up by more than 11 per cent.

Dutton’s conclusion is the government has lost its way and he boldly puts it down to “the Prime Minister’s lack of economic management and experience and general incompetence”.

Economic edge

Bolstering his confidence in this hyped political attack is a finding in the latest Resolve Political monitor that 40 per cent of Australians think the Coalition would perform better at economic management compared to Labor’s 23 per cent, with another 23 per cent undecided.

One seasoned MP on the crossbench says the poll is simply unbelievable because the evidence of the Coalition’s performance in the last government on measures of debt, inflation, productivity and wages were worse than they are today and since then they have not had their hands on the economic levers.

More likely the pollster has captured the mood of voters, and Labor still has time to convince the 23 per cent sitting on the fence it is a better bet.

Angus Taylor, however, writing in The Australian is warning of a period of continuing high inflation and low growth and he relies on commentary from the Reserve Bank last week to say Labor’s spending is making the problem worse.

Counterattack

Treasurer Jim Chalmers in Parliament counterattacked, accusing his Liberal shadow of wanting life to get harder for people and not asking what his criticism of $315 billion of spending means for pensions, Medicare and the broader economy.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has offered some broader context to the argument over the government’s role in the persistent inflationary predicament.

The governor, unlike many economic commentators, is aware of the Reserve’s two-fold remit to balance its objectives of price stability and full employment.

Bullock at the end of last week said both need to keep focus on both objectives, but the government has to provide “services and infrastructure” for the Australian people.

She added, “my personal view is that they are doing what they can do in that area and I’m doing what I can do in that area.”

Relief in sight?

Voters, it seems, are giving credit to this explanation, leaving their baseball bats under the veranda.

The inflation hawks are unimpressed, still demanding the bank should sacrifice the jobs concern and more aggressively go after the inflation dragon.

Economist Stephen Koukoulas is not in that camp. He points to the view of money markets that domestic and global economic weakness will force the bank to cut rates by the end of the year and twice in the new year.

Koukoulas says the markets have factored in a 75-basis point cut in rates within the next 12 months.

Borrowers and the Albanese government would breathe a sigh of relief if that happens, even though the argument would then shift to who is to blame for the weakening economy.

Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with more than 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics