The gas industry and its friends in politics like to claim that their fossil fuel pollutes less than coal.

They even argue that gas combats climate change by supplanting the “dirtier” fossil fuel – the rationale for expanding exports of liquefied natural gas.

But there is mounting evidence to the contrary, and it is becoming increasingly clear that we are not being told the whole story – and  especially with methane.

In October, a US journal published peer-reviewed findings that, when it comes to greenhouse gas emissions, American LNG is even worse for the climate than coal.

Cornell University professor Robert Howarth found that when we focus on the potential to heat the planet in the next 20 years, emissions from gas were 33 per cent worse than those from coal.

Methane leaks

The primary culprit was escaping methane – a greenhouse gas at least 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide in the short term.

An early version of the research influenced President Joe Biden’s decision to suspend approval of US LNG exports.

In Australia, a spate of studies has raised similar issues about methane leaking into the atmosphere from fossil fuel extraction and production sites.

Drawing on International Energy Agency data, a report last year found fossil fuel emissions were being grossly under reported.

Methane emissions from coal mining in Australia are about 81 per cent higher than recorded in the national emissions inventory, the report says, and for oil and gas sector, 92 per cent higher.

A separate study based on satellite monitoring also showed methane emissions from fossil fuel hotspots in Australia – gas and coal – were significantly underestimated.

Acknowledged emissions from extracting and shipping all the coal and gas Australia exports are responsible for about 15 per cent of Australia’s total emissions.

The uncounted emissions would punch a hole in Australia’s ambition to meet its domestic greenhouse gas reduction targets.

Science rejected

Predictably, fossil fuel interests and lobbyists reject these scientific concerns. But the fact remains that the most effective way to cut fugitive methane emissions is to stop the continued expansion of coal and gas developments.

It threatens to devastate the Pacific – literally sinking vulnerable nations under a tide of inundation from rising sea levels.

Ironically, Australia is continuing to approve huge gas projects and coal mine expansions as it seeks to host the United Nation’s annual climate change conference, known as the COP or conference of the parties, in partnership with the Pacific.

Australia’s gas exports create about 250 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions a year.

New gas projects identified by the government as “under
development” could add a further half a billion tonnes a year.

“How can Australia justify co-hosting a COP with the Pacific at the same time as it continues to open new fossil fuels projects that are putting our very existence at risk?” said Tuvalu’s climate change minister Dr Maina Talia in October after the government approved three new coal mines that analysts say could generate more than 1.3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Industry claims unfounded

The gas industry’s claims that Australia’s LNG exports will lower greenhouse gas emissions by replacing coal as an energy source in Asian markets are unfounded.

Five years ago, energy giant Woodside commissioned modelling from the CSIRO it hoped would support this claim. The scientific agency found the opposite, and Woodside buried the report until journalists obtained it under FOI.

The CSIRO’s report said that, in the absence of a high global carbon price, expanding Australian supply to Asia would displace renewables, prolong coal use, and increase emissions.

Since then, the gas industry and politicians have failed to produce any credible evidence that exporting Australian gas to Asia will lower emissions. Still, they repeat the mantra.

Global commitment

The last United Nations climate change conference was held in the United Arab Emirates.

Three decades after agreeing to avoid dangerous global warming, the nations of the world finally acknowledged in writing that this would involve “transitioning away from fossil fuels”.

The document that emerged was hailed as “an agreement that signals ‘the beginning of the end’ of the fossil fuel era.”

As the conference concluded, Australia’s climate change minister Chris Bowen declared “our future is in clean energy and the age of fossil fuels will end”.

Fine words, noble sentiments, but no firm timeline.

Since the minister made that lofty statement, his government has approved three huge coal projects – bringing the total to seven since May 2022 – and giant gas developments that will release billions of tonnes of emissions.

There will be no end to the fossil fuel era while nations such as Australia continue to expand the production and export of gas and coal.

Climate catastrophes

The world shows insufficient urgency even as climate catastrophes assault the Earth in the form of intense fires, floods and storms, just as the climate science predicted.

Emissions know no boundaries. It won’t make much difference to climate change if Australia decarbonises its domestic power industry and achieves its emissions reductions targets while shipping more fossil fuels abroad.

No matter what accounting rules the fossil fuel industry or the Australian government prefer, the scientific reality is that wherever in the world our coal and gas is burnt, the damage to Australia and the world remains the same.

Australia will face a regional backlash and accusations of hypocrisy if it hosts a coming UN climate conference while continuing to expand its output of coal and gas.

But hosting the “Pacific COP” could also be an opportunity for Australia to genuinely commit to ending fossil fuel production – to lead the world.

Either way, Australia will earn its place in history in the coming years. And when the story is told of how we responded to the challenge of climate change, our nation will either be remembered as a champion or a villain.

Time is running short. We must choose our path now. Only political bravery, and a willingness to stand up to the vested interests of the fossil fuel sector, can steer us in the right direction.

Stephen Long is Senior Fellow and Contributing Editor at the Australia Institute @StephenLongAus