One Nation’s rising popularity or declining support for the major parties? Residents in an ultra-marginal seat in Victoria are calling for change.

Julie Cincotta and Shaun Martindale are sipping coffee outside, near a public works site at an intersection in Melbourne’s outer-east.

The look they share is one of frustration.

There’s a lot going on in their ultra-marginal state electorate of Pakenham. Cost of living, crime and never-ending infrastructure delays top a long list of issues.

Fed up, Cincotta and Martindale have joined other residents in the so-called gateway to Victoria’s idyllic Gippsland region said to be turning away from the major political parties in droves.

In search of something different, they’re instead embracing One Nation.

“They are going to shake it up a bit,” Martindale said, glancing at the revitalisation project across the way.

“It’s taken two years to fix this roundabout,” he said derisively. “Two years.”

Polling suggests One Nation’s best shot at winning seats in November’s state election is in Labor-held outer suburbs as well as in the regions.

Pakenham is held by Labor’s Emma Vulin with a margin of just 0.39 per cent, but she won’t contest the seat next month. DemosAU research head George Hasanakos said that presented a key opportunity, according to

“One Nation has to win seats off Labor in areas where the Coalition hasn’t really polled well in the past,” he said.

“They would be keenly targeting those because they are held by Labor. They probably feel they have a good chance of taking voters off them.”

Liberal candidate David Farrelly, who secured a 1.8 per cent swing to the party in Pakenham in 2022, has meanwhile lost preselection.

For at least some conservative voters, the snub may also mean casting a vote for One Nation for the first time, in protest.

Farrelly’s exclusion effectively hands the electorate to the populist challengers, according to one local business owner who preferred not to be named.

Disaffection is growing across the suburb, which is about 50 kilometres from Melbourne’s CBD.

Residents are demanding change.

“We are fed up with both sides,” Cincotta said. “One Nation might scare the government.”

Martindale agreed.

While admitting Pauline Hanson’s party might not have all the answers, he said the current Labor government had wasted too much money to be forgiven.

“Not enough gets spent on the things that matter here,” he said.

“They are probably not the ideal alternative, but it’s something … new and fresh.

“One Nation will really get some traction everywhere because the working people have had enough seeing all this waste.”

Shaun Martindale and Julie Cincotta are joining the One Nation band wagon at next month’s state election. Photo: AAP

The discontent is seemingly not confined to big issues. At Cincotta and Martindale’s coffee house of choice, the Great Australian Bakehouse and Cafe, parking is a particular bone of contention in conjunction with seemingly endless construction work.

Staffer Leila Wilcox said customers constantly complained of noise, delays and a lack of space.

“Considering Pakenham’s population, the car park ratio isn’t cutting it at the moment,” she said.

One Nation Victorian leader Warren Pickering recently held a community meet-and-greet at a local pub. Ahead of the event – as supporters gathered for selfies and a chat – he described the party as “a catalyst for change”.

“We are a party of conviction and Victorians by large are looking for change,” Pickering said.

“There is a lot of people from both major parties joining our party and that’s not even Pakenham, that’s reflective of the whole state.”

With less than 40 days until polling day, Pickering has already faced intense scrutiny after admitting taking speed, ecstasy and marijuana before joining the Australian Defence Force, in his 20s.

He admitted his past was littered with mistakes but insisted he was the right person for the job.

The popularity of the Coalition and One Nation has slightly eased in Victoria as the November 28 election nears, according to the latest DemosAU/PremierNational poll.

Primary support for One Nation has dropped two points to 20 per cent, while the Greens are up to 14 per cent.

A polling of 1020 Victorians from September 10-20 found the Coalition’s primary vote fell two points to 30 per cent, while Labor’s rose two points to 25 per cent.

Labor has warned that Victoria is on track for the first minority government in Australia that would include One Nation.

In his first address, hours after predecessor Jacinta Allan’s resignation in July, Premier Ben Carroll was adamant that only Labor could see off the risk.

Former Labor premier Daniel Andrews made a rare foray into public discourse to echo the sentiment and lament the prospect of a “Wilson-Hanson government”.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson continues to shut down talk of a One Nation alliance, declaring she wants to form a majority Coalition government.

One Nation is also running its own race for now, having announced candidates in every lower house seat and eight upper house regions.

Existing MP Rikkie Lee-Tyrrell – who became One Nation’s first Victorian MP when she won her seat in 2022 – is also standing again.

One Nation has pledged to boost police resources, slash their paperwork and deal more harshly with repeat offenders.

However, its 63-page policy outline is largely un-costed, with most projects expected to be funded by cuts to Victoria’s suburban rail loop and First Nations treaty.

Monash senior politics lecturer Benjamin Moffit noted One Nation’s rise in popularity coincided with a sharp decline in support for the major parties.

“It was telling that One Nation was polling above 20 per cent before they even had a party leader or any candidates,” he said.

“It speaks to the fact there was already this incredible distaste for both major parties without the party doing anything whatsoever.”

Moffit said many voters struggling with rising living costs and mortgage pressures may be turning to One Nation out of growing disillusionment with the established political landscape.

“One can see why there would then be disenchantment with major parties who are not offering really any vision or solutions,” he said.

“That is not to say One Nation is offering that at all, but there’s been a swelling of the protest vote.

“These are a lot of seats that Labor, to some extent, has taken for granted, and this Labor government is seriously unpopular. It will be a vote for none of the above.”

Visiting from 80 kilometres away in Wonthaggi, Janie and Duncan Boyle said they felt One Nation was their only choice. The self-described working class couple were previously staunch Labor voters.

“Labor does not help the working man anymore,” Boyle, a former meat worker, said.

The cost-of-living crisis, particularly its impact on regional communities, motivated them to attend Monday’s Pakenham meet-and-greet to show their support.

“People can’t even afford rental accommodation,” Janie Boyle said.

“It’s better for a change.”

-AAP