For months David Crisafulli has been widely considered the Queensland premier-in-waiting, and any chances of Steven Miles and Labor retaining government had been written off.

Since then, a host of progressive policies from the Queensland Labor Party and a failure by the Liberal Party to address the simmering abortion issue have completely reshaped the election.

The latest poll ahead of the election on Saturday, October 26, has the Liberal-Nationals Party still leading but by a smaller margin.

Newspoll found a 52.5-47.5 split for the LNP-ALP, giving Crisafulli a narrow lead in its final survey before the election.

At its peak, the LNP led Labor by 58.5 per cent to 41.5 per cent on two-party preferred preferences, according to a Resolve Strategic poll covering June to September.

The same pollster, based on results from October 14 to 19, had the LNP up by 53 per cent to 47, with the Miles government increasing its first preference votes from 23 to 32 per cent.

Crisafulli claimed that Miles is already negotiating with minor parties and that a minority government would be “bedlam”, but Miles said that he plans for Labor to govern in its own right.

“I have spent 10 months showing … the kind of premier I would be,” he told ABC.

“There will be no deals with minor parties.”

Popular policies

Miles and his Labor government have launched a number of policies that only a nothing-to-lose attitude could inspire, announcing plans for publicly-owned petrol stations, a hefty levy on mining companies, 50c public transport fares and free lunches for school children.

Dr Ferran Martinez i Coma, a senior lecturer in government at Griffith University, said that the LNP responded by adopting some of the policies introduced by Labor.

“Something to consider in the medium- to long-term is that even if you lose the election, once you have installed a policy and it is popular, it can become very unpopular to remove it,” he said.

“Take another policy for example, the increase of rebates for people with young kids so women can get back into the labour force, it’s an expensive policy but it makes a lot of sense and I doubt any government will remove it.”

The 50c fares have proven popular with voters and politicians. Photo: TND

Crime

Crime has been a key issue in recent Queensland elections, with the Opposition adopting an ‘adult crime, adult time’ slogan.

The issue resonates with voters, i Coma said, because of media attention and political parties highlighting it as a strength of their potential government.

“Usually conservative parties are seen as being tougher on crime or being more serious about it,” he said.

“We know, for example, that early interventions, like the program released by my colleagues here at Griffith University, work better than almost anything, but that takes a long-term vision and won’t bear fruit in an election cycle.”

Criminologists, statisticians and Queensland police data show youth crime is at a 15-year-low, but candidates from both major parties presented themselves as tough on crime on the campaign trail.

Crisafulli even promised to step down as leader if he is elected and crime rates do not drop by 2028.

“I’m serious about it, and I’m not giving myself any wriggle room,” he said during a debate with Miles.

“If there aren’t fewer victims, you won’t be seeing me.”

Abortion

The issue of abortion was not originally on the election agenda, but Robbie Katter — and some of Crisafulli’s MPs — have put the Opposition in a tough position.

The Liberal leader has repeatedly refused to answer if he would allow a conscience vote for his MPs if an abortion bill was tabled by Katter.

Queensland decriminalised abortion in 2019, but several conservative MPs have flagged that they would like to see it re-examined if elected.