Nationals leader Matt Canavan will try to move to the lower house at the next election and dodge a difficult battle to hold onto his Senate seat against a surging One Nation.

The Queensland senator is expected to announce he will run for the seat of Capricornia, vacated by Coalition MP Michelle Landry, who on October 23 announced she will not recontest the seat she has held since 2013.

Landry’s resignation prompted widespread speculation Canavan, who lives in the electorate, would resign to run instead for the lower house seat, which the LNP holds on a 5.8 per cent margin.

He holds the second spot on the Coalition’s Queensland Senate ticket, behind Liberal James McGrath.

He won the second of two Queensland Senate seats the LNP won six years ago, but One Nation’s recent polling surge means it could conceivably pinch that second upper house berth.

Canavan could still face a stiff challenge from One Nation with its national director James Ashby yet to rule out standing as a candidate for Capricornia himself. He is Pauline Hanson’s chief of staff and lives on the Capricorn coast, where he made an unsuccessful tilt for the seat of Keppel at the 2024 Queensland election.

One Nation placed third on primary votes in Capricornia at the 2025 federal election, behind the LNP and Labor. It registered about a 1 per cent swing in its favour.

Canavan initially downplayed reports he would run for the central Queensland seat, saying the matter was up to LNP membership.

He had previously said he would do what it took to keep a strong Coalition presence in the region, despite the prospect of a One Nation wipe-out.

It is expected he will announce a move to seek preselection for the electorate later on Monday.

National Senate leader Bridget McKenzie said One Nation should not contest Coalition-held seats if it was serious about taking the fight to Labor.

“If One Nation is really serious about firing the liar, then they need to start running in Labor Party seats instead of running against someone like Matt Canavan,” she told Nine’s Today program.

“[I’m] not afraid of a fight – I want to save our country, and that means changing the prime minister, and that means taking Labor Party seats.”

-AAP