Dissatisfaction with Scott Morrison and his government was cited as a major reason for voters turning to community independents at the 2022 federal election.

Now – with the former prime minister no longer in Parliament – the teal wave has proven it is still a force in Australian politics, with both the Labor and Liberal parties in their sights.

Two election results over the weekend reaffirmed the staying power of the community independent movement: Jacqui Scruby’s win in the NSW Pittwater byelection and the success of independent candidates in the ACT state election.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, a political scientist at Monash University, said the weekend’s results continue to demonstrate that voters are looking for other options.

“One of the theories in 2022 was that many voters were angry with the Coalition and that is why they supported independents,” he said.

“Independents are successfully presenting themselves as not just for the disenchanted, but are resonating with voters because of a very specific set of policies.”

Some 20 per cent of voters in the ACT cast their ballots for either independents or minor parties and both the Labor and Liberal Party continued to lose primary votes.

Pittwater is located in traditional Liberal Party heartland, where teal independents Sophie Scamps, Kylea Tink and Allegra Spender won in 2022. (Zoom in and hover your cursor on the maps below to get a closer look at electorates)

Human resources

Ghazarian said that major parties are struggling for human resources, essential to electoral campaigning, whereas enthusiasm for independent candidates doesn’t seem to have waned.

“They are being confronted by agile local candidates and campaigns, while seeming to be stuck in a different period of politics,” he said.

“The risk is that they are in a downward spiral that they cannot get out of.”

Alex Dyson, the community independent candidate for Wannon in Victoria, marked the end of September by announcing he now has more than 1000 volunteers signed up for his campaign to unseat senior Liberal Dan Tehan.

Alex Dyson’s independent campaign has more than 1000 volunteers. Photo: Alex Dyson

He told The New Daily that “the major parties aren’t learning” why community independent campaigns are attractive to voters around Australia.

“Their primary votes keep dropping and it is because they aren’t listening to people,” he said.

“They’re meant to be the best of us, yet they’re getting distracted with their own egos, in my opinion, and gamesmanship, resulting in that sort of politics filtering down.”

Dyson said that he and his volunteers are focused on being a positive change in politics.

“We’ve seen people calling out for these issues, like gendered violence or climate change, to be taken seriously,” he said.

“In my part of the world, our roads are among the worst in the country because we’ve been a safe seat for several years.”

Dyson first ran in 2019 and received 10.3 per cent of first preferences.

His 2022 campaign made Wannon a marginal seat for the first time in its history, ultimately losing 54 to 46 per cent on two-party preferences.

Other senior Liberal figures are facing independent challengers, who have built up campaign offices and machines following the 2022 election.

Minority government?

Ghazarian said it is extremely difficult for major parties to dislodge independent candidates once they are elected.

“The seat of Indi was won by Cathy McGowan in 2013 from the Liberal Party and the Liberal Party has not been able to win it back,” he said.

“Once a local candidate builds momentum, they become a real threat to major parties.”

Polling has pointed towards an increased likelihood of a minority Labor or Coalition government at the next federal election.

Ghazarian said that an enlarged crossbench will have massive political implications, regardless of who forms government.

“There should be alarm bells ringing for the major parties and if they continue to lose ground at the next election, then it is already too late,” he said.

“Peter Dutton has positioned himself as a polarising figure, but if the opportunity arose where had to negotiate with the crossbench to get a majority, then we’d almost definitely see a different side of him.”