The loss of a blue-ribbon Liberal seat is an “outlier” that does not represent a broader malaise in the party’s NSW branch, its under-pressure state leader says.

Former political adviser Jacqui Scruby is almost certain to have captured the Sydney seat of Pittwater in a byelection at the weekend.

After apparently handing the Liberals just their second loss in that electorate in 51 years, Scruby – who is backed by the environment-focused political fundraiser Climate 200 – is poised to become the first teal independent in NSW parliament.

On Monday morning, she led Liberal candidate Georgia Ryburn with more than 55 per cent of the vote on a two-candidate preferred basis, a margin NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman conceded would be near-impossible to overcome.

Scruby is yet to claim victory, but said on Sunday the 6 per cent swing on election night showed the momentum for community-focused candidates.

“It’s happened over years, not overnight,” she said.

While the Liberals had had issues, “overwhelmingly, what we’re seeing is people trust community-backed representation”.

“They’re witnessing it at a federal level, next door with [neighbouring state MP] Michael Regan and they’re seeing what independents can do in NSW parliament. Legislation was passed this week by an independent.”

The votes are still being counted but seems like the people of Pittwater have voted for a Community Independent who will put them first every time rather than a party. Thank you @jacquipittwater & all the hundreds of local volunteers who put their heart & soul into this election pic.twitter.com/ODdLy43v4J

— Dr Sophie Scamps MP (@SophieScamps) October 19, 2024

High on Scruby’s agenda are restoring funding cut by Labor for a major arterial road, and addressing rising insurance costs due to climate change.

The likely loss of Pittwater leaves the Liberal Party with no federal MPs, one state MP and one councillor in an area that was once the mainstay of conservatives such as Tony Abbott and Bronwyn Bishop.

It also adds to a list of Sydney coastal seats that have gone to teal independents at a federal level and builds on the 2023 state election loss of the neighbouring seat of Wakehurst to independent Michael Regan.

But Speakman pointed to the recent string of calamities that have plagued his party and said it gave voters no reason to back the Liberal candidate in Saturday’s byelection in the northern beaches seat.

That vote was triggered by the resignation of sitting member Rory Amon over child abuse allegations, which he denies.

The Liberal Party also failed to nominate candidates for recent local government elections, including for Northern Beaches Council, while an ugly public spat with junior Coalition partner the Nationals also could have damaged their brand.

Speakman said it was a “perfect storm” the party could not withstand.

“It’s been a tough few months … there have been a number of issues, whether it’s local government, the Pittwater resignation, federal intervention, leaked text messages, a bit of friendly fire from one of our National Party colleagues,” he said.

“Pittwater is an outlier. There were exceptional circumstances there that have not applied across the rest of the state.”

Speakman denied his own leadership was in jeopardy in response to comments from an unnamed Liberal MP, who was quoted by News Corp as saying the party head was “finished” after the Pittwater loss.

“In a large party room, it would be a miracle if you didn’t have the odd dissident … I have the overwhelming support of the Liberal party room,” he said.

Swings to the Liberals in the Sydney seats of Epping and Hornsby, where byelections were also held on Saturday, pointed to the strength of the party’s brand, Speakman said.

Labor did not run candidates in any of the three vacant seats.

“The first opportunity voters had to cast a verdict on [NSW Premier] Chris Minns, he is nowhere to be seen,” Speakman said.

-AAP