An early election could be on the cards if the federal government fails to break political deadlocks on housing, climate and manufacturing.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has put pressure on Parliament to pass two signature housing reforms, a separate environment law overhaul and its Future Made in Australia bill – all of which have met fierce resistance from the Coalition and Greens.

Albanese insists the laws need no amendments because other political parties agree with their objectives and support their frameworks.

So if the Greens and Coalition do not break the stalemates, he may turn to the nuclear option: A double dissolution.

“We’ll wait and see,” he said in Sydney on Tuesday.

“I’ll tell you a way to avoid a [double dissolution]. It’s for the Coalition and the Greens to vote for legislation that they support. There’s nothing in the legislation, on the nature positive act, that they say they’re opposed to.

“We’re always open to sensible discussions … but what we won’t do is undermine our own legislation with amendments when it stands on its merits.”

A double dissolution occurs when there is a repeated deadlock between the Senate and House of Representatives on a proposed law.

Talks of a double dissolution arose after the government’s $10 billion housing fund was blocked by the Greens – but the bill later passed.

Despite Albanese’s veiled threat on Tuesday, ABC election expert Antony Green appeared to pour cold water on the timing making any double dissolution election possible in a post on X.

Let’s be clear about the meaning of section 57. The double dissolution must take place more than 6 months before the end of a House term, so by 25 January 2025. The DD is the termination of the House and Senate terms. It is NOT the election which could be held in March. #auspol

— Antony Green – elections (@AntonyGreenElec) September 17, 2024

Another election expert, The Tally Room host Ben Raue was also sceptical.

Thoughts on a DD:
-They’re not close to a trigger. Fairly certain they’ve already run out of time to get one.
-The 2022 class of senators are relatively friendly to the govt compared to the 2019 class or a hypothetical 2025 class. Why spill them?

— Ben Raue (@benraue) September 17, 2024

“I could imagine a government that is popular and is weighed down by a Senate dominated by a past election where they did badly using a [double dissolution] to clean house. But Labor’s problem isn’t right-wing senators elected when Morrison won (who will be gone in 2025 anyway),” he also wrote.

“It’s that a big chunk of Labor’s [two-party preferred vote] is not actually a primary vote for them (particularly Greens voters) and those voters elect non-Labor senators. No evidence that Labor has increased its primary vote share of the Labor 2PP, indeed the opposite.”

“I wouldn’t have been able to buy if it wasn’t for the government.”

That’s what Codie told me when I stopped in for a morning cuppa at her place in Sydney.

Thanks to our help, she only needed a 5% deposit and didn’t have to pay lender’s mortgage insurance. pic.twitter.com/aeED0I7f0L

— Anthony Albanese (@AlboMP) September 17, 2024

Greens dig in

Labor’s schemes before the Senate – Help to Buy and Build to Rent – have faced criticism that they wouldn’t make housing affordable.

The Greens want the government to amend its housing bills by including a cap on rent increase, further investment in public housing and a phasing out of tax handouts for property developers.

They also want to adjust the Nature Positive legislation to consider the effect mining and gas projects can have on climate change.

But the Greens say the government has refused to provide any wiggle room in negotiations.

MP Max Chandler-Mather said the Commonwealth would rather let a key housing bill fail than fight with the minor party.

“We recognise we’re not going to get everything in our negotiation with the government,” he told ABC on Tuesday.

“But right now they’ve offered nothing – literally, no counter offer.

“That’s very frustrating when we’re in such a serious housing crisis.”

Albanese said boosting supply levels was the best way to solve affordability issues.

“When I was young, more than two-thirds of Australians in their early 30s could buy their own home, now it’s less than half,” he said.

“The outlook is even worse for young Australians on low and middle incomes. That trend is only going in one direction unless we work together to do something about it.”

The Help to Buy scheme would reduce the requirements for deposits for first-home buyers through a government loan guarantee. It’s estimated 40,000 Australians would be able to buy their first property through the government program.

But Chandler-Mather, alongside some economists, say the scheme would make housing more affordable for a select few, while pushing up prices for everyone else.

“We’ve said to Labor, if you want to help renters, co-ordinate a cap on rent increases, because there are millions of renters right now one rent increase away from housing stress or eviction into homelessness. They need caps on rent increases, not bills that sound nice but make the problem worse,” he told Ten’s The Project.

“For people trying to buy a home, they need the government to stop giving property investors billions of dollars in tax handouts that deny renters the chance to buy a home and drive up rent prices.”

Coalition home ownership spokesman Andrew Bragg said the Commonwealth’s shared equity scheme gave up on the Australian dream.

“Australians need to own houses, not the government,” he told ABC radio.

A similar program, the Home Guarantee Scheme, had been used by 120,000 people.

-with AAP