The climate lobby group behind the teal independents says donations have leapt 20-fold since Opposition Leader Peter Dutton came out against emission reduction targets.

Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court said the organisation had taken almost $950,000 in small individual donations in the past six weeks – with a big jump last weekend.

Dutton’s attack on emissions targets for 2030 and 2035 had made his job easier, Holmes a Court said, with the climate group planning to back 30 independents in next year’s federal election.

“People are frustrated, but I tell you what, they’re white hot after Mr Dutton’s reversal on climate,” Holmes a Court told ABC radio on Thursday.

“People now know, I’d say, that Dutton is as negative as [former PM Tony] Abbott but as slippery as [former PM Scott] Morrison on climate and he’s now nailed those colours to the mast. People see what the threat is. They thought the climate wars were behind us – or would soon be – but Dutton’s saying he wants a climate election.”

Among the electorates Climate 200 has in its sights is Dutton’s greater Brisbane seat of Dickson, where he has a 3.4 per cent margin.

“We could very much see a community campaign in Peter Dutton’s seat. That would be very interesting,” Holmes a Court said.

Incumbent independents will also be backed in “hard”.

Holmes a Court said there had also been a community upswell in the southern ACT seat of Bean, on the back of “a Pocock effect” – the impact of independent ACT senator David Pocock.

Bean voters were looking for a strong independent candidate, Holmes a Court said. But taking the seat would be a hard task – Labor MP David Smith holds it with a margin of almost 13 per cent.

Meanwhile, an academic has warned the Coalition’s strategy on climate targets threatens a repeat of its painful 2022 electoral losses to independent candidates.

Dutton’s plan to abandon the legislated 2030 emissions reduction target – while promising a new target if he becomes prime minister – could alienate voters because climate change had consistently been a top-three issue in recent elections, Andrew Hughes said.

That was especially true in the Liberals’ must-win inner-city seats, said Hughes, an Australian National University academic who specialises in political marketing and advertising.

“I don’t think he will get into office because he needs to win the moderate seats back somewhere,” he said.

Teal independents who unseated Liberal moderates in inner Sydney and Melbourne seats at the last election already see an opportunity in Dutton’s rhetoric on climate change.

“There is a view in an electorate like mine that if [people] want strong accountability on climate, it’s going to come from the crossbench, not from the two major parties,” independent Zoe Daniel, who won the Melbourne seat of Goldstein from the Liberals in 2022, said on Wednesday.

Another teal, Wentworth MP Allegra Spender said Dutton was “not being credible” on his plans for emissions targets.

“I think we need to do more to make sure we’re on track and actually hit 43 per cent. But this is not the time to abandon the targets and say we’re not interested,” she told Sky News Australia.

“To me, this is Peter Dutton not being credible that he actually wants to make significant changes and significant reductions in our emissions.”

Hughes said that even if the Coalition wins seats next year, it will still likely need independents to form a minority government.

“Where do they get the numbers from? I can’t really see them getting enough independents across the line to form government,” he said.

Dutton rekindled the embers of Australia’s climate wars when he attacked the government’s renewable energy plan last weekend.

He argues Labor can’t achieve its target to cut emissions by 43 per cent by 2030, saying it will drive up power prices in the interim.

Dutton is pinning his hopes on his plan to build about six nuclear reactors across Australia. But he is yet to unveil any details despite promising full costings months ago.

Dutton has also insisted he remains committed to net-zero emissions by 2050.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has said Australia has a responsibility to neighbouring countries to have a strong climate target.

-with AAP