Western Australia could be shifting back to the political right, with Labor on the nose and One Nation tipped to win a byelection on Saturday.

Voters in the safe state Labor seat of Secret Harbour, south of Perth, will head to the polls following the mid-term retirement of long-serving MP and senior government minister Paul Papalia.

Support for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has been steadily growing in the WA mortgage-belt seat.

And the shift could have longer-term implications for senior federal Liberal MP Andrew Hastie, whose marginal seat of Canning takes in the Secret Harbour electorate and is being openly targeted by One Nation.

“This is one of the first tests for One Nation, certainly in Western Australia, since their popularity in the polls seems to have risen,” political analyst and Notre Dame University executive dean Martin Drum said.

“Last year they got 4 per cent of the statewide vote, but the polling’s more than quadrupling that now.

“I think they’ll win it comfortably.”

Labor has been dominant out west at both state and federal level in recent years, with a WA voter swing driving the party’s national victory in 2022.

But on the ground in outer-suburban Secret Harbour, a voter base of primarily young working families and blue-collar workers is vocal about frustration with the major parties and a perceived lack of basic services.

Federal issues, the cost of living and housing supply are also front of mind.

“Everyone’s sick of the current state of politics at the moment,” construction worker Justin Small said.

“We want a fresh change. We just want to be able to live easier and cheaper.

“Pauline Hanson and One Nation seem to be the obvious choice for a lot of people.”

Small voted early for One Nation and its candidate, gym franchise owner Luke Herdegen. He said he wasn’t concerned about the right-wing party’s controversial – and sometimes confused – plans to slash immigration.

“That needs to be implemented in Australia to benefit more Australians,” Small said.

“At the moment, true Australians aren’t being put first.”

Retired nurse Christine White was yet to decide where her vote would go, but it was unlikely to be One Nation.

“I think they’re quite racist,” she said.

White is also unimpressed with WA Labor, despite previously backing the party.

Community amenities, health, schools and help for the growing number of homeless people in the area were all top of her mind. She is also angry that it has taken a byelection for the party to commit funding to build the long-promised Karnup train station.

“We’ve been waiting for that for a long time,” she said.

Education assistant Hayley Taylor believes Labor is heading for defeat.

“There’s a big change coming, but I hope it doesn’t go One Nation’s way,” she said.

“They’re a bit too radical for me but they make a lot of valid points.”

Labor candidate Georgia Tree, who most recently worked for resources giant Woodside, has faced scrutiny over her connection to the electorate after it emerged she owns a home 60 kilometres away in inner-Perth.

A former Labor voter, Taylor said she had voted early for the Liberals.

“It comes down to the promises and delivering on them … Karnup Station was a massive thing,” she said.

“Another big thing was that the Labor candidate is not a true local.”

More than 15,000 people – or more than 40 per cent of registered voters in Secret Harbour – have already cast their ballots.

A Demos AU survey of 990 WA voters showed One Nation had strengthened its position ahead of the poll. It is up 3 per cent since June, running equal with the Liberals, with 21 per cent of the primary vote.

Support for the Liberals was down 2 per cent and backing for Labor was steady, with 33 per cent of the primary vote.

Drum said One Nation’s performance in Secret Harbour would be of interest across the nation, particularly Victoria where there is a state election in November.

One Nation is expected to soon announce a candidate to contest the seat of Canning at the next federal election.

Hastie, considered a future Liberal leader, has vowed to defend the seat which he retained last year on a reduced margin of 6.5 per cent.

-AAP