Heat, storms on the way for SE Australia
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Storms are on their way for much of eastern Australia as a pool of hot air brings a blast of pre-summer heat.
It comes as the weather bureau warns the effects of climate change are speeding up in Australia, making it harder to pin down when disasters like extreme heat, fires and intense downpours will occur.
Forecaster Weatherzone said storms were likely for parts of NSW and Queensland later on Thursday.
“Low-pressure troughs passing over eastern Australia on Thursday will act as triggers for the showers and thunderstorms, beginning in the afternoon and likely persisting into the early evening in some areas,” it said.
“In NSW, there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms over most central and eastern parts of the state, although storms are most likely about the central ranges and in the north-east.”
Nearer Sydney, the Blue Mountains and surrounding areas are most likely to be in the firing line on Thursday.
Storms may also track towards the east and affect parts of the city, Central Coast, Illawarra and Lower Hunter, Weatherzone said.
In Queensland, thunderstorms are possible in the south-east and north-west.
“Brisbane, the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast all have a chance of seeing a storm on Thursday afternoon or evening, although they are not guaranteed,” Weatherzone said.
It comes as a stubborn ridge of high pressure south of Australia has allowed hot air to build over the country’s north-west.
This weather pattern caused exceptionally high temperatures in WA’s Pilbara district last weekend, with highs well above 40 degrees.
The heat heads east in coming days. Weatherzone predicts weekend temperatures in the high-20s to mid-30s in Melbourne and Adelaide. Canberra might also get to 30 degrees on Thursday, while Brisbane is likely to be the same or warmer.
“Sydney’s [temperatures] will most likely venture into the high-20s on Sunday and Monday, although its western suburbs could have a few days above 30 degrees … possibly even reaching the mid-30s this Sunday,” it said.
The State of the Climate 2024 report draws on the latest national and international #climate research, monitoring, science and projection information to describe changes and long-term trends in #Australia’s climate.
Read the report here: https://t.co/mZfXMT0OLK#SOTC24 @CSIRO pic.twitter.com/9QHGmIUZF4
— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) October 30, 2024
Climate change ‘surprises’
Elsewhere, the two-yearly State of the Climate report, issued by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology on Thursday, has found global warming is bringing more extremely hot days and fewer extremely cool days to Australia.
Cool-season rainfall continues to decline across the country’s south, while heavy rainfall bursts are becoming more intense.
The short-lived rainfall events are associated with flash flooding, particularly in urban areas.
The intensity of downpours had increased by about 10 per cent or more in some regions, particularly in the nation’s north, BoM climate services national manager Karl Braganza said.
“That’s associated with the increased moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere,” he said.
The oceans around Australia are also warming, contributing to longer and more frequent marine heatwaves and coral bleaching, and becoming more acidic.
Rates of sea level rise varies across the nation, with the largest increases in the north and south-east of the Australian continent.
After record heat in 2019, there have been fewer temperature extremes in the past four years under La Nina conditions. But extreme heat days in three of those four years are still high when compared with most years prior to 2000.
The rate of record-setting events in the climate system, both in Australia and globally, was significant, Braganza said.
Extremes such as record-low sea ice or record-high ocean temperatures globally are making forecasting weather and other effects of climate change more difficult.
“Climate change, and the rate of change in particular, is probably holding some surprises in terms of the impacts that it has across Australia,” Braganza said.
The report said the “primary and unequivocal driver” was the atmospheric accumulation of greenhouse gases including carbon dioxide and methane.
Australia has reduced its emissions since 2005, but curbing emissions must accelerate to meet the nation’s 2030 targets.
The vast majority of Australia’s carbon emissions in the past decade have come from coal, oil and gas, averaging 399 million tons of CO2-equivalent per year.
Fossil fuel exports have contributed another 1055 million tons annually.
Natural land and ecosystems on average offset about half of Australia’s domestic annual emissions.
Global emissions continue to grow and the world can afford only another seven years like 2023 to give itself an odds-on chance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees, the report found.
Another 15 years like 2023 would likely push temperatures past 1.7 degrees.
“This is a global question and all of the world needs to be taking this seriously,” CSIRO climate research manager Jaclyn Brown said.
“It’s going to be tough to stop warming at 1.5 degrees.”
Warming would have far-reaching implications, including in the financial services industry, which has hiked insurance premiums to account for increasing disasters.
Housing affordability for the next generation would become less about the price tag but rather if they could afford insurance, Brown said.
Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen said the report reiterated the urgent need to act on climate change and the government had a credible plan that would “reap the economic opportunities of the clean energy transformation”.
-with AAP