Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers is tempering expectations ahead of a make-or-break inflation report, saying the new data could show price pressures are still zig-zagging.

June quarter consumer price index data will land on Wednesday ahead of a Reserve Bank of Australia board meeting next week, amid fears a firm outcome could force another interest rate hike.

Official monthly inflation has been moving in the wrong direction for much of the year, and economists expect to see a one per cent rise in the June quarter taking the annual rate to 3.8 per cent, up from 3.6 per cent in the March quarter.

Chalmers said inflation was “more persistent than anyone would like” but had fallen considerably since Labor was elected two years ago.

“It rarely moderates in a perfectly straight line, it zigs and zags on the way down,” he told ABC TV on Wednesday.

“Now, if the inflation figure today is a bit persistent, a bit sticky and stubborn – more so than we would like – that would be an unwelcome outcome but also unsurprising given the pressures coming to us from the world.”

The conflict in the Middle East had spurred global inflation, with oil prices up 10 per cent from a year ago and shipping costs tripling since November, Chalmers said.

He declined to speculate on whether the new Australian Bureau of Statistics data could pave the way for another interest rate hike.

Forecasters expect the trimmed mean – the central bank’s preferred measure of underlying inflation – to come in a little stronger at four per cent on an annual basis.

All four big banks are forecasting a trimmed mean number above the central bank’s predictions, but don’t believe it will be high enough to trigger a hike when the central bank makes its rates decision on August 6.

No more increases in the cash rate – which stands at 4.35 per cent – remain the base case of economic teams at the big banks, though all have pushed out their projected timelines for cuts.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia economist Stephen Wu said the June quarter inflation data would “make or break” the case for more tightening.

A 1.1 per cent or more rise in quarterly inflation could mean an August rate hike “is more likely than not”.

He also said solid jobs growth in June wasn’t enough to warrant a rate hike in isolation, especially with the jobless rate ticking higher, but it won’t “stand in the way of a hike if the June quarter consumer price index data comes in too hot”.

While the central bank remains cognisant that the final push to bring inflation back to its two to three per cent target band will be bumpy, it hasn’t ruled anything in or out on interest rates.

Debate continues over the Reserve Bank’s inflation-fighting strategy, with some economists of the view that it should have gone harder to contain price pressures, while others warn the economy is weak and more tightening could needlessly trigger a recession.

StoneX Group vice president of derivatives Everett O’Chee said a high June quarter inflation readout “may well paint the RBA into a corner and force it to choose between credibility or persistent inflation”.

– AAP