Another tariff round lands on Australian exporters

The direct exposure is small. The second-order hit through our biggest trading partner is not.

Australia sells relatively little directly into the tariffed lines. The risk sits one step removed, in demand from the economies that do.

Iron ore and LNG volumes are the transmission channel, and both are priced off industrial activity offshore.

Treasury’s assumptions hold if the slowdown is shallow. They do not if it is not.