Donald Trump’s conviction, which makes him the first former president to be found guilty of a crime, is historic but the political fallout ahead of November’s presidential election rematch against Joe Biden remains to be seen.

David Smith, an associate professor in American politics and foreign policy at the University of Sydney, said while polling has shown that a conviction could have a significant impact on Trump’s hopes for a second term in the White House, nothing is certain.

“A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll said that 10 per cent of Republicans would reconsider their vote, but only 4 per cent would actually change their votes,” Smith said.

“That could be significant in a race that is looking as close as this one, where the margin between them is 1-2 per cent, but everyone’s going to hear a lot of political spin before then.”

He said the conviction is significant because Trump’s other criminal trials have been delayed, and may not be heard in court until after the November election.

“Democrats are really going to try to milk this for all it’s worth, to tap into people who just wouldn’t be able to bring themselves to vote for a convicted felon,” Smith said.

“The flip side is that the Trump campaign will definitely be raising a lot of money off this, I don’t think it will net them any extra votes, but they’ll be able to fundraise.”

A finding in a civil case that Trump sexually assaulted and defamed E Jean Carroll did not affect his standing with his supporters. Photo: Getty

Ramifications

The former president will have to wait until July 11 to find out if he will serve prison time, with the Republican National Convention, where Trump will be formally named the candidate for his party, following just four days later.

Smith said it is not the lead-up to his coronation that Trump wants.

“There’s some speculation that if he gets a light sentence, then people might take that as a sign that it wasn’t very serious to begin with,” he said.

“I certainly don’t think that he will see the inside of a prison because it would be so politically and logistically fraught to imprison a former president.”

He said people often ask if someone can run for president after being criminally convicted, and the answer is yes.

“In an ironic twist, Trump may not be able to vote because Florida bars convicted felons from voting until they’ve served their sentences,” he said.

“Trump may well have not served that by the election, especially if he’s appealing and defers any sentence until after that, so he can definitely run, but he may not be able to vote for himself.”

Florida defers to other states’ rules, according to the Associated Press, so if Trump avoids prison time, he will be able to vote for himself in November.

The takeover

Trump and his allies have recently completed a full takeover of the Republican party, including funnelling funds towards his own goals, and his allies have circled the wagons following his conviction.

Smith said there has been one notable dissident so far.

“Larry Hogan, who’s the former governor of Maryland and is now running for the Senate there, tweeted out that Americans should respect the verdict and move on,” he said.

“The Trump campaign immediately responded by saying ‘your campaign is over’.

“Even when control of the Senate is at stake, the Trump campaign is going to make sure every Republican falls into line.”

The United States Senate, where Hogan is running for the Republican Party, is currently split 50-50 between the Republican Party and Democrat representatives, with Vice-President Kamela Harris holding the tie-breaking vote.