The release of damning evidence gathered against Donald Trump following his attempt to overturn the 2020 election may be salacious, but there are serious questions about whether it will affect the November election.

The 165-page document was prepared by Jack Smith, the special prosecutor in charge of pursuing Trump over his actions following his defeat to Joe Biden and released by a federal judge before a hearing to classify what were official presidential acts.

David Smith, an associate professor at the United States Studies Centre, said the documents were released following the Supreme Court’s ruling that Donald Trump was ‘‘immune” from prosecution for official acts he took as president.

“What these documents are trying to do is say that these actions he took were clearly outside of his official actions, he was clearly acting as a private citizen and also to try to show that he knew he had lost the election,” Smith said.

“I still find some of the things that have come out shocking, like when an aid informed Trump that Mike Pence was in danger and he said ‘So what?’ or when he was on a private plane and allegedly told his family that it doesn’t matter if won or lost the election, you have to fight.”

Despite the revelations, Smith believes the information is unlikely to change anyone’s mind about Trump.

“Had a trial taken place, then that potentially could have affected the election,” he said.

“The focus would have been on Trump in the courtroom for weeks and not the campaign trail.”

Revelations

Some of the most damning evidence alleged by Smith and his team of prosecutors highlight that Trump did not care if he had won the election or not, but would try to overturn it either way.

When he was told by his lawyers that his claims of voter fraud wouldn’t survive scrutiny in court, he allegedly told them that the “details don’t matter”.

Each alleged criminal action made against Trump will be weighed by Judge Tanya S Chutkan to see if they fall into official presidential duties, and are therefore immune, or if they were outside of those parameters and he can be legally pursued.

It was released just a day after Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, refused to state if the 2020 election was stolen during the Vice Presidential debate.

The legal brief also detailed forensic data that showed Trump was watching Fox News and browsing Twitter at a time when reports of injuries to the police and protesters breaching the capital were being aired, before tweeting that Mike Pence had lacked “courage” to do what was right.

Smith said that if Trump does win the 2024 election, it will mean the end of the Justice Department’s historic criminal prosecution of the former president.

“He’ll order them to drop the case or whoever he appoints as attorney-general will, meaning the end of it,” he said.

“The Georgia racketeering case and the New York case would still be in place, but it could be 10 years before the Georgia case comes to trial.”

Neck and neck

Kamala Harris, the vice president and democratic nominee, has opened a national lead on Trump, but the swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are where the next president will be crowned.

Smith said although Trump has had a remarkable ability to survive scandals that would end other people’s political careers, if he loses the election he will be viewed as a “historically mediocre candidate”.

“Looking at the fundamental forecast of this election, if you combine the presidential approval rating and perceptions of the economy, then Trump should be winning the election,” he said.

“Instead, it is neck and neck and Harris has a good chance of winning.”