Australia’s first cyclone of the summer could begin forming on Tuesday afternoon and head towards the Queensland coast, with the state’s capital in the possible firing line.

The tropical low weather system, currently around the Solomon Islands, will be called Jasper when it turns into a cyclone.

The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts the storm will intensify and begin tracking towards north-eastern parts of the Coral Sea on Wednesday.

The tropical low is predicted to form into a category one cyclone late on Tuesday, before intensifying to a category three on Thursday.

Originally the system was not expected to impact Queensland, but the outlook has changed.

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BOM meteorologist Steven Hadley told the ABC modelling suggested Cyclone Jasper’s path could potentially head towards millions of people in the south-east.

“Some of the modelling has even suggested it could come through as far south as Brisbane, but it would probably be an ex-tropical cyclone by then, in the longer term,” he told ABC Radio Brisbane on Tuesday.

“Potentially, we are looking at something crossing the coast next week or as early as late this weekend as some of the more recent guidance that we’ve been looking at shows.

“But more likely than not, it would be in the tropical areas of Queensland … it’s just really too early to say just yet.”

-with AAP