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Swag bags of promises for key campaign week

Labor campaign launch

Source: Anthony Albanese

Buoyed by official launches replete with rousing speeches and expensive policies, Labor and the Coalition have a swag of big-ticket promises to sell voters as the election campaign hits full swing.

With only a week of campaigning left before early voting begins, both sides know every day is crucial.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is kicking off his week in Adelaide, where he will spruik two of Labor’s centrepiece promises announced on Sunday – an automatic $1000 deduction on tax returns and a plan to help first homebuyers into a property.

Housing, an issue at the forefront of voters’ minds, dominated both parties’ campaign launches.

Shifting demographics mean young voters – millennials and gen Z – will have more influence on this election result, as they outnumber older voters at the polls for the first time.

Research by Monash University found that three in four voters younger than 24 wanted immediate action on affordable housing.

With young voters in his sights, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be in Brisbane on Monday, spruiking the Coalition’s plan to make interest payments on the first $650,000 of a mortgage tax deductible for first homebuyers if elected on May 3.

That could save the average first homebuyer an average of $10,000 a year.

The plan has found few friends among economists, who say it would disproportionately benefit high-income earners, push house up prices by increasing demand, and blow a hole in the federal budget.

Grattan Institute chief executive Aruna Sathanapally said said it was likely to cost taxpayers $1.25 billion in forgone revenue across four years, and was not money well spent,

“The money will overwhelmingly flow to higher income earners because they have higher tax deductions,” Sathanapally told ABC News.

“It’s not good policy.”

Labor’s housing plan was not showered in praise either.

Under Albanese’s plan, first-home buyers would need to save up just a 5 per cent deposit, presenting the same issue of increasing demand and making housing less affordable for everyone else.

But the other prong of Labor’s housing pledge – building 100,000 new homes for first homebuyers for $10 billion – got more love, as it would go some way to tackling the underlying issue of insufficient supply.

Not wanting to be outdone, both sides offered additional tax sweeteners to voters on a bad day for the budget bottom line.

Peter Dutton at the Coalition campaign launch

Source: SBS News

The Coalition promised to bring back the Covid-era low-and-middle-income tax offset for another year, giving taxpayers a one-off sugar hit of up to $1200.

The Morrison-era offset, colloquially known as LMITO, was intended as a temporary measure to smooth taxpayers through the stage-three tax cuts.

Steven Hamilton, an economist at the George Washington University, said the government was right to let it die because it increased the marginal tax rate, worsening incentives for people to work.

Labor’s tax deduction policy, on the other hand, got his tick of approval.

It would reduce compliance costs, benefit millions of taxpayers without making anyone worse off, make the tax system more progressive and save hundreds of millions of dollars per year in accounting and legal fees.

“A fantastic tax reform,” Hamilton wrote on X.

Polling trend continues

Support for the Coalition and Dutton has slipped, according to the latest Newspoll, which also found  most voters expect Albanese to be re-elected.

The survey conducted for The Australian and released on Sunday, has Labor on 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

The result is unchanged from the pollster’s reading of support in the previous week.

When asked to predict the outcome of the May 3 election, 64 per cent of respondents said they expected a Labor government while 36 per cent said they thought the Coalition would win.

A Labor minority government – backed with the support of minor parties or independents – was thought the mostly likely result by 43 per cent.

The survey of 1271 voters was conducted online between April 7-10, before both major parties formally launched their campaigns on Sunday.

On primary votes, the Newspoll registered a one-point drop for the Coalition to 35 per cent while Labor’s support remained steady on 33 per cent.

Backing for the Greens, minor parties and independents was also unchanged, with both on 12 per cent. One Nation gained one point to 8 per cent.

The survey registered a seven-point rise in approval for Albanese, leaving him on an overall reading of -4, but Dutton’s net approval rating dipped two points to -19.

Albanese’s rating as better prime minister was up one point to 49 per cent while those preferring Dutton dipped two points to 38 per cent.

A YouGov poll last week also put Labor ahead of the Coalition, 52.5 per cent to 47.5 per cent, on a two-party-preferred basis.

Early voting for the federal election starts on Tuesday, April 22.

-AAP

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