Watching all the handwringing over Daniel Andrew’s appearance in a group photo taken at a Beijing military parade makes one thing exceptionally clear: China is winning and we haven’t worked out how to deal with that.

It’s not just the ridiculous pearl-clutching over Andrews’ – a former state premier most world leaders would never have heard of – appearance in the photo, which also included former New Zealand leaders John Key and Helen Clark. It’s that many missed who was standing with them. And who wasn’t.

Prabowo Subianto, the president of Indonesia, and Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim were both there, representing two of Australia’s most important relationships in the Pacific.

China is also firming up relations with Thailand – which was absent during the 80th V-Day celebrations, but had previous meetings, agreeing to accelerate a rail bridge connecting Thailand, Laos and China.

The emerging new world order – China, Russia, Indonesia, India and Brazil – was on display, and Australia, still holding on to the ruins of the post-World War II order, was not part of the conversation. Sure, we sent a delegation, but no one from the executive.

Sticking our head in the sand and pretending the shift isn’t happening is not just costing us opportunities for self-directed sovereignty, it’s actively tying us to a dying empire led by a panicked tyrant who is madly pissing up against every tree in a desperate display of “strength”.

For a lesson in that, you need not look any further than Anthony Albanese’s trip to Vanuatu. Be it bad advice, or maybe just hubris, Albanese walked into a meeting to sign an agreement that was never actually on the table.

Contrary to popular belief, Australia is not overly popular in the Pacific. Too many broken promises, a paternalistic, colonialist approach to diplomatic relations, and actions not following the words means most of Australia’s closest neighbours rightly treat our nation with cynicism and scepticism.

And while the Albanese government has recognised the need to put in the work and has made the Pacific a priority, Australia’s lacklustre climate ambition, and refusal to recognise the shifting geo-political sands we sit on, means there are many in the Pacific no longer happy to sit back and accept crumbs.

Vanuatu’s refusal to sign a $500-million agreement that limits who else it can accept infrastructure funding from, without concrete promises from Australia about the future, is just another sign of how we risk being left behind.

The rules-based order Australia has put its faith in since the end of WWII is no longer – largely thanks to America’s destruction. There has been a fundamental re-alignment of the basic structural elements of the global system much of the 21st century has sat on, and in the re-drafting China sits at the top – both economically and strategically.

Instead of pretending this isn’t happening, Australia has an opportunity – one it is so far missing – to examine its own position in the world.

This doesn’t mean throwing our lot in with China and turning our backs entirely on the US. But it does means taking a step back and re-examining our role, our future, and where our values lie and setting a course of self-directed sovereignty.

That’s a somewhat wanky way of saying we don’t throw our lot in with any one nation, but instead work out what works for us, and when. It would mean we set our own course in strategic and defensive matters that do actually put Australian interests first, rather than just going where the US goes, because that is where the US is going.

It would mean keeping an open dialogue with China, and the US and determining a course from there.

Because, while most in Australia’s media, political and defence circles were having conniptions over Andrews’ appearance in the Beijing photo, and what it may or may not have legitimised, while still others took aim at Bob Carr’s attendance, the bigger issue is that the leaders in that photo are plotting the course for the next century.

And Australia wasn’t there.

Which deserves some sober reflection that recognises the changed world we now sit in – and recognises what is, rather than what once was.

Amy Remeikis is a contributing editor for The New Daily and chief political analyst for The Australia Institute