Expect parcel delays and possibly bare supermarket shelves at Christmas, Australians are being told, due to a worsening shortage of truck drivers.

Curtin University associate professor Elizabeth Jackson said analysis showing Australia has a shortfall of 26,000 drivers heading into the second half of the year should worry consumers.

An increase of truck drivers leaving the workforce has combined with high demand for home deliveries to put supply chains under pressure. That means fewer goods may be available – and they’ll likely cost more.

“As consumers, we’re privileged to have a greater variety of products at our fingertips than ever before,” Jackson said.

“But those diverse needs have increased [the] demand for road transport.”

Australia urgently needs to encourage more people to train as truck drivers, with the traditionally blokey and ageing workforce unable to cope with higher demand post-Covid.

That means the industry must become more inclusive, particularly for women, Jackson said, while also boosting safety standards and pay rates for Australian truck drivers.

Supply chain convenience dashed

Australians have become accustomed to the ever-increasing convenience of supply chains in the past decade, particularly as services such as next-day and even same-day delivery have proliferated.

But the latest research shows those services have put increased strain on the road transport sector, with resources diverted to deliveries to individual households.

“In the past, road transport was essentially about moving goods from the point of import or their point of manufacture to either a distribution centre, or some sort of shop,” Jackson said.

“We not only have that now, but we also have the added transport burden of these very small parcels of goods going to individuals.

“We need more people behind the wheels of these vehicles.”

Jackson warns the days of supply chains responding to ever-increasing consumer demand are over, saying Australians should expect higher prices, delayed deliveries and fewer products.

“What it’s going to require is better planning,” Jackson said.

“For example, before Covid, people would think: ‘It’s Father’s Day on Sunday, I haven’t got a present, I’ll get one.’

“But that consumer luxury is now being eaten away at; there might not be that on-time convenience of the supply chain to respond to our busy lives.”

Workforce shortage

Figures from the International Road Transport Union suggest that almost half of all truck drivers are 55 or over, which means large swathes of the workforce are approaching retirement age.

Making matters worse, women’s participation in the sector is extremely low at just 6.5 per cent of drivers. Those under 25 make up only 5.3 per cent of the total workforce.

Jackson said those trends need to be thrown into reverse gear for the nation to have any hope of resolving driver shortages.

“We need to make truck driving attractive to people who might not have considered the job otherwise,” Jackson said,.

“You don’t just have to know a friend of a friend [who already drives a truck].”

There has been some early success with programs in Western Australia that have helped vocational education pathways such as TAFE to start lowering barriers to entry.

“What it does is not only equip people with the skills to actually drive a vehicle, but also all those additional parts of the job people may not be as aware of like health and safety,” Jackson said.

“It’s about creating an easier path forwards and helping people be far more confident going into those roles.”