Australia’s jobs market remains remarkably resilient, with the unemployment rate holding strong at 4.1 per cent in February despite a surprise fall in employment.

About 53,000 jobs were lost from the economy over the month, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported on Thursday.

That was despite consensus predictions for a rise in employment of 30,000.

However, the rate was unchanged as the number of unemployed people fell by 11,000, with the participation rate falling 0.4 per cent to 66.8 per cent.

Participation still remained historically high, just 0.4 per cent off its record, ABS head of labour statistics Bjorn Jarvis said.

“Despite the fall this month, the participation rate is still relatively high, having reached a historical high last month, and is 0.1 percentage points higher than this time last year,”  Jarvis said.

The strength of the labour market has been a consistent bright spot in Australia’s economy, with unemployment remaining below the historical average of 6.3 per cent since 1972, despite high interest rates.

Labor-aligned think tank the McKell Institute found the jobless rate has been lower under the Albanese government than any since Gough Whitlam, averaging 3.8 per cent since Labor was elected.

“A low unemployment rate is not just some abstract number, it is fundamental to the success of individuals and societies,” institute chief executive Ed Cavanough said.

He said workplace protections introduced by Labor – such as “same job, same pay” laws and multi-employer bargaining – had not caused unemployment to skyrocket and had led to a return to growth in real wages.

The underemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points to 5.9 per cent in February.

Assistant employment minister Andrew Leigh said more Australians were finding secure work and landing roles faster than ever.

“Participation is rising, underemployment is falling, and workers have greater power to move on their own terms,” he said.

“These numbers reflect a labour market that is stronger, fairer, and more dynamic than we’ve seen in a generation.”

But Labor cannot take all the credit for the low jobless rate.

Unemployment was already trending down under the Coalition with Albanese inheriting a jobless rate of 3.9 per cent in May 2022, down from the Covid-affected peak of 7.5 per cent in July 2020.

The opposition has also accused Labor of artificially tightening the labour market by overseeing a massive expansion in non-market sector jobs, such as healthcare and education, which has made it harder for other industries to find workers.

“The economy right now is being led by public spending and immigration, when we need an economy that is led by the private sector and is delivering for Australians,” shadow treasurer Angus Taylor said in December.

Economists at NAB and JP Morgan think Thursday’s print will show the unemployment rate dived ever lower to 4 per cent, unwinding an unusually large seasonal uplift in people attached to a job but waiting to start work in January.

Reserve Bank governor Michele Bullock has cited labour market tightness as a reason for not needing to lower interest rates earlier, as central banks in peer economies had done.

“For the RBA, we don’t think a slight fall in the unemployment rate in February will change the chances of a rate cut in May much,” said JP Morgan’s Ben Jarman, Tom Kennedy and Jack Stinson in a research note.

“The larger question for the bank right now is the sensitivity of prices/wages to the unemployment rate, which demands the labour market data be assessed with reference to the data on prices/wages.”

The RBA will have to wait until the April 30 quarterly CPI print to find out whether inflation has continued to moderate, despite the low unemployment rate. That means a cut is probably off the cards at the bank’s next meeting on April 1.

-AAP