Australia could be on track to record its biggest Olympic medal haul in 24 years if predictions from data specialist Nielsen prove correct.

Nielsen’s newly-released Gracenote Virtual Medal Table puts Australia in fifth spot on the final Paris tally, with a whopping 54 medals, including 15 gold.

If correct, the Australian team would be looking at its most successful Olympics since hosting the Sydney Games in 2000.

It would also be the sixth time Australia has surpassed 40 medals in the past eight Olympics.

It said Australia’s success would again rest largely with the performance of its swimming team, who dominated at Tokyo in 2021 with more gold medals than the entire Australian Olympic teams of 2012 and 2016.

Australia finished sixth on the medal tally in 2021 in Tokyo with 17 gold and a total of 46 medals.

The Gracenote table is a statistical model based on individual and team results in previous Olympics Games, World Championships and World Cups to forecast the most likely gold, silver and bronze medal winners by country.

Source: Nielsen/Gracenote

The United States is again forecast to top the tally with 112 medals, including 39 gold, with China second on 86 medals and 34 gold.

Britain is tipped to finish third with 17 gold medals and a total of 63, bettering its performance in Tokyo where it was pipped by host Japan.

This year’s host, France, is expected to be the biggest improver, forecast to grab 60 medals and 27 gold to finish in fourth place.

France finished eighth in Tokyo with 10 gold and a total of 33 medals, while Japan is predicted to come sixth with a total of 47.

If correct, France could record its best Olympics in 124 years, since winning 115 medals when it hosted the Paris Games in 1900.

One of the biggest losers will be Russia, which was banned from Olympic competition. along with Belarus, due to the invasion of Ukraine.

Russia came fourth at the 2016 Rio Games, but was banned in 2019 over a massive doping scandal.

More than 330 Russian athletes took part in the Tokyo Games, competing under the Russian Olympic Committee banner and finishing fourth with 71 medals.

At Paris, little more than a dozen Individual Neutral Athletes from Russia are expected to compete.