I’d be putting my house on Australia winning the third Test in Birmingham.

The scars from Lord’s, and what went on 18 months ago in Australia, will be too great for England to overcome.

Those scars have got to be there for Alastair Cook, Ian Bell and Joe Root.

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When you play Test cricket, back to back, you come up against the same players day in, day out. It’s different to footy, where you might only play the same team two or three times a year.

Can James Anderson get his mojo working? Photo: Getty

England must be dreading the prospect of facing the Mitchells again – Johnson, Starc and Marsh.

It’s going to be so hard for them to turn it around.

They don’t want to face Johnson – he bowls nearly as fast as Jeff Thomson.

England will struggle to make any runs against that attack.

It’s the depth of the attacks that will prove the difference – we’ve got Nathan Lyon as well, so it’s really five bowlers against two, James Anderson and Stuart Broad.

Their leg-spinner Adil Rashid will struggle – those overcast conditions won’t be advantageous to a leggie.

You need runs on the board to allow you to bowl a leg-spinner.

They’re in a real bind – Anderson didn’t take a wicket at Lord’s.

The only way I see England taking this game is winning the toss, putting Australia in and bowling them out cheaply in the overcast conditions.

But it’s hard to visualise.

The biggest myth in cricket is the Edgbaston curse.

In 2005 Ricky Ponting won the toss and sent England in, thinking the pitch was suspect.

Rodney Hogg likes what he’s seen from Peter Nevill. Photo: Getty

England capitalised and went on to make 400 on the first day.

But it’s a myth – because Australia lost the game by three runs.

Michael Clarke was playing that game, and he’ll be totally aware of what to do with the toss.

Like in 2005, the weather conditions are average at the moment and it’s set to be wet and cool the whole game.

If England are to have any chance of winning the game, those are the conditions they need – damp, overcast and cool.

Anderson and Broad can swing the ball around, and they’ll need to.

But I think we can really start to be very confident in this Australian team, it’s going to go from strength to strength.

Mitch Marsh is going to be a very capable No.5, Peter Nevill has shown so much in Shield cricket that I think he’s going to be a great replacement for Brad Haddin.

I still believe Josh Hazlewood could turn into a really good all-rounder, Starc’s capable with the bat, Johnson’s on the verge of 2000 Test runs.

As far as this Birmingham Test goes, it’ll be very hard for England to turn around the momentum Australia grabbed so decisively at Lord’s.