Poll after poll shows that Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is not guaranteed a second term.

And if the Coalition wins? There’s no guarantee it’ll continue the Albanese government’s structural reforms to improve women’s economic security.

What is guaranteed, sadly, is the persistent gender pay gap that compromises the financial security of women.

The latest data from the Workplace Gender Equality Agency confirms that women in Australia still earn, on average, 21.1 per cent less than men for the same hours of work.

The gender pay gap is stubborn, systemic and directly linked to the care-giving gap. Having a baby puts men and women on vastly different income trajectories, entrenching inequality from the moment a child is born.

At the heart of this divide? Being able to access and afford childcare, is the top barrier to Australian women’s unusually low rates of workforce participation, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

The Albanese government isn’t perfect, but no one can deny it has made serious progress for women and children throughout its three-year term – by laying the foundations for a universal early childhood education and care system in Australia.

It has delivered a series of incremental, but profound early childhood education reforms to address this structural driver of gender inequity and improve opportunities for children. 

But with the Coalition silent on its plans for early education if it wins government, these hard-won gains are at risk.

Let’s take a moment to recap what has been achieved.

Labor reforms

The Prime Minister’s historic wage rise for early childhood educators entitled this almost entirely female workforce – some of the lowest paid working women in the country – a long-overdue wage rise of 15 per cent.

We’re already seeing a decrease in job vacancies across the sector since the announcement – powerful proof that investing in the early years is smart social and economic policy, and excellent news for centres in regional areas that have struggled to recruit and retain staff.

Albanese removed the infamous childcare “Activity Test” that made it more difficult for vulnerable parents, particularly single mums, to receive the childcare subsidy and find employment. An estimated 40,000 more women will be able to work with its removal.

If re-elected, the Prime Minister has pledged to invest $1 billion into increasing the supply of early learning centres in unserved and underserved communities – where early learning services are scarce and thousands of parents, mostly mothers, are unable to work in an economy that demands two incomes for a family to survive.

And, most recently, the Prime Minister pledged his support for a universal, early learning system where daily out-of-pocket fees are capped at $10 or $20 a day, protecting families from the ever-rising cost of childcare that for-profit providers monopolise.

It’s a model that sounds too good to be true to most, until you look to other countries like Sweden, Finland, Norway and Iceland that are making it happen, and realise that treating a child’s right to early education as you would their right to attend primary or secondary school – rather than something you earn access to through wealth or privilege – should be the norm.

Of course, these countries also happen to record the lowest gender pay gaps in the world.

And with the Prime Minister just last week stating that he’s keen to replicate the same model here, it’s a vision that doesn’t have to be so far out of reach for Australian women.

But, with the federal election imminent and the Coalition yet to reveal any plans for childcare if re-elected, the next two to three months present a sliding doors moment for making it reality.

The Coalition’s plans?

The Coalition doesn’t support the government-funded wages increase. It has voted against the bill that would guarantee three days of access to subsidised care for all.

It also hasn’t revealed what it will do next term to address the devastating issue of ‘childcare deserts’ across Australia, in which a quarter of our population live.

OECD data recently found that 85 per cent of early education fees in Australia go to private providers – a characteristic that incentivises childcare providers to supply their services where there’s money rather than where there’s need.

It’s a characteristic that is unlikely to change under a Dutton government, if recent comments by Liberal MPs on childcare reform and wage cuts are anything to go by.

And the costs of inaction in this area to women are huge because as long as profit drives access, barriers to early childhood education and care will remain. And women who want to balance their careers with their desires to be mothers will feel like they’re asking for too much.

In a recent online poll, we asked parents what they’d save if childcare fees were capped at $10 a day.

The answers were heartbreakingly modest – paying off the mortgage, saving for a house deposit, being able to buy a few extra groceries without stress. No one was asking for the world.

Women wanting affordable, quality early childhood education and care, and having the same economic opportunities as the men in their lives, are not asking for the world.

The Albanese government has laid the foundations for a system that would give more mums the same economic choices as dads. Now, it’s up to us to decide whether we build on that progress – or watch it disappear.

This is what we have been fighting for. This is what Australian women deserve. This is what we’re calling on whoever forms the next government to address.

Georgie Dent, a former CEO and journalist, is executive director of The Parenthood and an advocate for women, families & children