Vladimir Putin’s power has been “significantly and quite critically” eroded, despite mercenaries from Wagner Group aborting their march on Moscow and their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin agreeing to stand down his troops and be exiled to Belarus.

On Saturday, Mr Prigozhin, previously a close ally of Mr Putin, stormed military headquarters at Rostov-on-Don, a city near the border of Ukraine and Russia, and began marching his troops in a convoy towards the capital of Moscow.

Tweet from @igorsushko

Dr Jessica Genauer, a senior lecturer in international relations at Flinders University, said the extent of Mr Prigozhin’s actions came as a surprise to analysts outside of Russia.

“I don’t think anyone expected Prigozhin to actually declare that he was going to wagon his forces to march all the way to Moscow,” she said.

“We really couldn’t help thinking it looked like some kind of coup attempt, even though Prigozhin himself declared that this was not a coup.”

Mr Prigozhin accused the Russian Army of targeting and killing members of his mercenary army, took aim at Minister of Defence Sergei Shoigu and army chief Valery Gerasimov, claimed Russia invaded Ukraine based on lies and said Russia would soon have a new president.

In an address to the Russian people, Mr Putin declared the actions treason without naming Mr Prigozhin, as troops began fortifying Moscow in preparation of Wagner Group’s convoy reaching the capital.

Reports of Wagner troops shooting down military helicopters and criminal charges being announced against Mr Prigozhin added weight to the seemingly impending conflict, before widespread conflict was avoided after a deal struck by Belarusian dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko was announced.

Tweet from @ShaykhSulaiman

‘Putin’s Chef’

Mr Prigozhin, nicknamed Putin’s Chef because he owns restaurants that service the Kremlin, has a colourful history.

The oligarch was imprisoned for nine years as a young man in Soviet Russia, and upon release in 1990 he was selling hot dogs when the communist state collapsed.

After gathering wealth through investing in grocery stores and gambling businesses, where he met Mr Putin for the first time in the 1990s, Mr Prigozhin diversified into new markets.

In 2012, he received contracts to feed the Russian military worth $US1.2 billion a year and founded the Internet Research Agency in 2013, the infamous bot farm alleged to have influenced the 2016 US presidential elections.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the mercenary chief heading the Wagner Group. Photo: AAP

Mr Prigozhin denied links to the Wagner Group for years, but in 2022 admitted he founded the mercenary army to support Russian troops occupying Ukrainian territory during the 2014 war in Donbas, the precursor to the invasion of Ukraine.

The Wagner Group is known for clandestine international operations, reportedly clashing with US-backed Kurdish troops in Syria over oil fields and supporting Russian interests in civil wars throughout Africa.

The group has been accused of numerous war crimes over the past decade and has been sanctioned by the United States, the European Union and the United Kingdom.

Mr Prigozhin isn’t the only oligarch with a private military.

Russian oil giant Gazprom Neft established its own private military in 2023 and other ‘volunteer detachments’ have fought in the invasion of Ukraine.

A boon for Ukraine

Dr Genauer said even though it seems that this particular episode has concluded with Mr Prigozhin removing himself to Belarus and calling off his troops, “this event definitely does erode Putin’s power significantly and quite critically”.

“Putin has built his political power and legitimacy in Russia from maintaining the image of the leader who can bring together disparate factions, who can maintain control and who can create stability in Russian society,” she said.

“This event critically weakened that impression of Putin’s power, which therefore also really weakened his legitimacy as a political leader.”

Details of the deal brokered by Mr Lukashenko remain unknown, as does the location and status of key figures like Mr Prigozhin, Mr Shoigu and General Gerasimov.

Dr Genauer said the events won’t make an immediate short-term difference on the front line of the Russia-Ukraine war, but there might be “secondary effects that will be very beneficial for Ukraine”.

“If we’re seeing some kind of chaos or uncertainty within the Russian military leadership, for example, at the moment it’s not exactly clear what the status of Shoigu is right now, what is the status of General Gerasimov. If there’s uncertainty amongst the Russian military then that will likely have a flow-on effect for the way in which Russia can fight this war against Ukraine,” she said.

“As soon as we see instability and fractures and chaos, that could be very damaging to Russian morale and then that might contribute to what Ukraine is certainly hoping might happen, which could be some kind of collapse of Russian forces on the front.”

The chaos could benefit Ukraine if it reduces Russian morale. Photo: AAP

Why Mr Prigozhin marched on Moscow is still unclear, but it may have been the result of a long-running feud between ‘Putin’s Chef’ and Russia’s military elite.

Wagner Group mercenaries will be not be prosecuted for taking part and will be absorbed by Russia’s military, according to the scant details released of the deal brokered by Mr Lukashenko.

Putin’s future

Mr Putin can run again for two more six-year presidential terms after a constitutional referendum, marred by reports of voting irregularities, was held in 2020.

Dr Genauer said with presidential elections being held in March 2024, it is an “existential factor for him to run and win”.

“With the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the way that has unfolded over the last year and a few months, Putin has backed himself into a corner that he doesn’t have any good options to step down from political leadership in Russia,” she said.

“Personally, I don’t see any options that Putin will not be running for president and will not try his very hardest to win those presidential elections, unless of course something completely unforeseen happens in Russia before then, like some type of regime change.”