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If you go by the polls UK election result ‘could tip either way’

Prime Minister Theresa May speaks during her last campaign visit on Wednesday (UK time).

Prime Minister Theresa May speaks during her last campaign visit on Wednesday (UK time). Photo: Getty

With Brexit and national security at the forefront of the UK election campaign — issues which traditionally play to the Conservative “patriotic image and narrative” — Theresa May should have the edge.

But one UK-based political commentator has told The New Daily the result could tip either way.

After a spate of terror attacks in the final months leading up to election day and the volatile nature of the polls, Sheffield Hallam University’s head of politics Andy Price admitted “no result would come as a surprise”.

This uncertainty has, in part, been created by Labour recently casting doubt over Conservatives leader Ms May’s attitude to security, when it revealed she played a part in slashing 20,000 police jobs over a seven-year period.

The University of Bath’s Dr Benjamin Bowman, a comparative politics teaching fellow, said “attacking” media coverage by Conservative-leaning newspapers on the eve of the election was also telling that the governing Conservatives could be under threat.

Some experts have even gone so far as to suggest that the election could be determined by the youth turnout.

Security concerns after spate of terror

Heightened concerns over security policy have emerged following the spate of deadly terror attacks at Westminster Bridge, Manchester arena and London Bridge.

Mr Price said that while ordinarily a terror incident would allow the governing party to show a strong hand in managing the fallout and garner more votes, it was not clear cut.

“There are some real questions to be asked about how these attackers got through the security forces, given that the Manchester bomber and at least two of the London attackers were known to the security services,” he told The New Daily.

“Furthermore, there is a significant critique of Ms May and her role as Home Secretary, where she was responsible for the drastic reduction in police numbers over a seven-year period. This too could dent her chances of securing a large majority.”

Mr Bowman said no one would have predicted that, at this point, former Home Secretary Ms May would be defending her record on security, and that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would have the advantage.

“It is revealing that Conservative-supporting newspapers went in heavily on the eve of the election with personal attacks on Corbyn and his senior colleagues — even calling them terrorist appeasers,” he said.

“The political rulebook says the power of the press will give the Conservatives the upper hand on this issue, but I think it is possible that Corbyn has come out slightly ahead on this one.”

University of Salford tutor in British politics Ben Williams agreed, claiming Labour’s line of attacks “appeared to have resonated with many voters”.

How the result could define Britain’s EU departure

Mr Price told The New Daily that Ms May and Mr Corbyn would offer two distinct approaches to Britain’s departure from the European Union.

“Theresa May would approach negotiations with a firm hand which rests ultimately on the repeated claim that she will walk away from the negotiations with ‘no deal’ if she doesn’t get the things she wants,” he said.

“This will inevitably lead to a Hard Brexit, meaning leaving the single market and the customs union too, as well as the institutions of the EU.

“In contrast, the Labour Party have said in their manifesto that they want to retain the closest ties possible with the EU and would approach the negotiations in such a spirit.”

Mr Williams said that while Ms May had initially sought to make Brexit the central issue of her election campaign, this had been somewhat side-tracked by domestic policy uncertainty, recent terror events and the resulting shift in focus to security agenda.

Securing a stronger parliamentary majority would place her in a “stronger negotiating position” with the EU, he said.

Result predictions

Glasgow Caledonian University politics lecturer William McDougall said Labour would be recognised as having won the campaign, even if the party fails to win government.

The majority of experts who spoke to The New Daily, predict the Conservatives maintain the edge, however some have suggested the result would be too close to call with greater certainty until Friday.

This is partly due to ‘the unknown’ of an influx of new and younger voters, a contingent to which Mr Corbyn is considered to appeal.

Mr Williams said this portion of the population amounted to about one million who registered over the past few weeks, which he believes was largely encouraged by Mr Corbyn’s campaign.

“Coupled with hopes that turnout will grow from 66 per cent in 2015 due to former non-voters taking part, Labour can cling to some limited optimism,” Mr Williams said.

“Whether more voters or a higher turnout is enough to secure victory for Labour remains doubtful.”

However, Mr Price said the current situation was not necessarily predictable.

“It still looks highly likely that the Conservative party will win a majority, although by what margin really is up in the air,” he said.

“The swing in polling and opinion in recent weeks, and the impact of the terror attacks, mean in truth that no result would surprise me tomorrow.”

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