Labor is on track for a thumping victory in Saturday’s Western Australian election – although a bit short of its historic high of three years ago.

In results that could spell bad news for WA Liberal leader Libby Mettam, the ALP appears likely to again skate home in the state poll.

A Demos AU survey of 1126 people published on Friday predicted a 57-43 two-party preferred vote, with a 13 per cent swing against Labor that could put up to 11 seats in reach of the Liberals.

Newspoll similarly predicted Liberal gains of up to 11 seats, with its polling showing a 57.5 to 42.5 two-party-preferred Labor lead from a 12.2 per cent swing, up from 56-44 a month ago.

While the Liberals appear to have made ground, it’s not known if that will be enough to significantly erode Labor’s 53 of 59 seat stranglehold on WA’s lower house, following its unprecedented landslide victory in 2021.

“The better [Mettam] performs, the more time she has as opposition leader in the next term, and to gain traction,” political analyst and Notre Dame University executive dean Martin Drum said.

“Closer to 20 [seats], that buys her time … obviously if she finishes with 10, … the knives will be out pretty soon.”

Mettam had performed well during the campaign, despite being forced to do the majority of the work because of the small handful of experienced MPs the Liberals had, Drum said.

The party was reduced to two lower house seats in the last poll.

“Every other seat is being contested by new candidates who don’t have the benefit of incumbency [and] … They’ve got a small upper-house team,” he said.

“She’s also coming up against a Labor government that’s reasonably cashed up.”

Multiple Liberal candidates have also been accused of poor behaviour, controversial comments and derogatory social media posts.

“The challenge is pretty enormous,” Drum said.

Many Liberals view the party’s candidate for Churchlands – high-profile Perth media personality and the city’s lord mayor Basil Zempilas – as a future leader if he wins the seat Labor presently holds on the slimmest of margins.

“Most people concede it’s impossible for [Mettam] to win [the election] and she’s got someone breathing over her shoulder,” Drum said.

Mettam shrugged off questions on the Nine Network about her relationship with Zempilas on Friday, instead spruiking the talents of the wider Liberal team.

Experts tip a comfortable win for Labor but its massive lower-house majority is expected to shrink, and it’s likely to lose control of the upper house.

At the 2021 election, Labor won 53 of the 59 lower house seats on a two-party vote of 69.7–30.3, a record high for either major party at any state or federal election. Labor won 59.9 per cent of the primary vote, with then premier Mark McGowan riding a popularity wave.

“Labor was never going to match the 2021 result at this election, but if the results on Saturday reflect the Newspoll and DemosAU polls, they will exceed their 2017 result, when Labor won 41 of the 59 seats on a two-party vote of 55.5–44.5,” election analyst Adrian Beaumont said.

The Liberals had 13 seats in 2021 and the Nationals five, with Drum offering similar predictions for this year.

“The main focus of the Liberals has been winning back the heartland this election, and that’s a series of seats that were lost in 2021 which normally are safe for them,” he said.

“If [the Liberals] were up to 20 [seats] that’s business as usual … [but] 15 is pretty viable.”

The Nationals, with four seats, have been the official WA opposition party since 2021. But the prospects on Saturday are less upbeat, with the seat of leader Shane Love under threat.

He is battling former colleague Merome Beard, who left the Nationals and joined the Liberals, in a new seat called Mid-West, after the electorates of Moore and North West Central were merged.

“He’s got a sitting MP challenging for his seat … so he’s got a fight on his hands to win,” Drum said.

He said the Nationals were likely to win between three and five seats and were unsurprisingly focused on regional electorates during the campaign, despite fielding candidates for three metropolitan seats.

“I can’t see them making a big splash,” Drum said.

-with AAP