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Final day of voting in tight NT race, as croc speckles goes with his gut

Voters will decide who will govern the NT as chief minister in the last day of polling.

Voters will decide who will govern the NT as chief minister in the last day of polling. Photo: AAP

Territorians are heading to the polls for the final day after two weeks of early voting in what experts are predicting to be a tight election.

While the academics are crunching numbers, the territory’s resident psychic croc, Speckles, is going with his gut instinct.

When presented with Labor’s Chief Minister Eva Lawler and Country Liberal Party leader Lia Finnochiaro’s heads on a stick, Speckles predicted Labor would be returned for a third term.

The territory tradition has delivered mix results with Speckles predicting Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would win in 2022 but some of his other predictions have been questionable.

Fun and games aside, experts are predicting a reasonable swing towards the Country Liberal Party.

In the NT electorates consist of some 6000 voters, often making margins in the 25 seats extremely tight.

Despite Labor’s victory in 2020, eight seats recorded majorities under 120 votes, and four of those were under 50.

Chief Election Analyst for the ABC Antony Green said Chief Minister Eva Lawler’s Drysdale seat could “be the pivot point that determines the fate of the government”.

“The loss of just two seats will cost the Labor government its majority while the CLP need a net gain of six seats for majority government,” he wrote on his blog.

“In between two seats and six lies the possibility of minority government, the fate of both major parties resting on the assembly crossbench.

“After two terms of Labor government, everything points to there being a swing to the Country Liberals, the election to be fought overwhelmingly in Labor seats.”

Professor Emeritus John Wanna said new trends in “protest votes” across Australia could also impact the NT election.

He said many of the trends reflect a discontent with the two party preferred system, which could see a swing towards independents.

“Party identification means you vote the same way as your parents always did,” he explains.

Data shows a dramatic change in voting behaviour at a national level that is driving independent and green votes up.

Prof Wanna said other recent elections show voters who align with party identification had dropped by almost half, from 95 per cent to less than 50.

The territory also has the youngest population in the nation, its median age is about eight years lower than the national average and recent elections have shown younger voters favouring non-traditional voting patterns.

Almost two thirds of voters have already cast their votes ahead of the final day of polling.

—AAP

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