With millions of votes still to be counted, Anthony Albanese is almost certain to retain government after a larger than expected swing to Labor across Australia.

“This could be a big win for Labor, but it’s certainly a win,” ABC pollster Antony Green declared before 8.30PM Saturday and with booths still counting ballots and millions of pre-poll votes to be accounted for.

Green said while it was impossible to say whether Labor would govern in majority or minority, it would none the less have the numbers to govern.

As for the Coalition, he said it is “bad news everywhere for them”.

“Seats all over the country all over the Eastern States, where they are behind,” Green said.

“They need to get 19 seat for a majority government they need to gain 10 seats and they are in the process of losing 12 or 15,” he said of the Coalition vote.

In more bad news for the Coalition, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton looks likely to lose his seat of Dickson after a major swing of around 10 per cent to Labor candidate Ali France.

With Saturday’s victory, Albanese is the first prime minister to win two elections in a row since John Howard in 2004.

Trailing in the polls going into the start of year, Labor regained ground on the coalition throughout 2025 following global uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump and his tariffs on trading partners.

Labor received strong positive swings in key marginal seats in Tasmania and Queensland.

The government had also seen an uptick in votes in battleground seats such as Gilmore in NSW’s south coast.

The Greens have also seen swings against it in the three seats it holds in Brisbane, which it won in 2022.

Labor has been leading in national opinion polls throughout the gruelling five-week campaign, but coalition figures are still hoping voters will swing back to the opposition.

Labor starts the night on 78 seats, with the coalition on 57 and 15 on the cross bench, with 76 needed for a majority.

Coalition campaign spokesman James Paterson admitted anger from voters against US President Donald Trump had been a drag on support for right-wing parties.

“One fact I think we can all acknowledge and recognise is the Donald Trump factor. It was devastating in Canada for the Conservatives where the Canadian Conservative leader lost 20 points over the course of a few months,” he told ABC, referring to the country’s recent election.

“That has been a factor here.”

Campaigning on reducing living costs, Albanese made health a focal point during the election, frequently brandishing his Medicare card and pledging to expand access to bulk billing and urgent cares clinics.

Dutton was considered the frontrunner going into the election, but a lack of detail surrounding key policy costings and a voter association with the policies of Mr Trump caused his his poll numbers to plummet.

Dutton urged voters throughout the election to ask themselves if they were better off now compared to three years ago, but the public has opted for a second term of the status quo.