Coalition leader Peter Dutton could be at risk of losing his own marginal electorate, according to a new poll, with one issue appearing particularly “toxic” with voters.

Dutton’s seat of Dickson, on the north side of Brisbane, is the most marginal in Queensland, held by a slim 1.7 per cent.

The Liberal leader who is vying to be the next Australian prime minister won by just 3363 votes in 2022.

A new survey of 854 voters, conducted by UComms for the Queensland Conservation Council, showed Labor’s candidate Ali France tracking ahead of Dutton.

Voters favoured France over Dutton by 52-48 on a two-party preferred basis, the poll found.

Undecided voters were asked which candidate they had “even a slight leading” towards — with 23 per cent favouring France over Dutton’s 17 per cent.

France, a working single mother, has been a journalist and communications manager and is a world champion para-athlete.

The Coalition’s nuclear energy policy appeared particularly unpopular with Dickson voters, according to the findings.

Around 46 per cent of those surveyed said they were less likely to vote for Dutton due to his plan to build nuclear reactors.

Voters were asked whether they believed nuclear energy or household solar panels and batteries were more likely to bring down power bills.

Just over 60 per cent of respondents answered household solar and batteries, versus 39.1 per cent backing nuclear to bring down costs.

Queensland Conservation Council director Dave Copeman said Dutton’s plan to put “toxic, expensive nuclear reactors in Australian communities” could end up costing him his seat.

“These results send a clear message that Peter Dutton’s nuclear policy is a major liability for the Liberal Party, and disastrous for himself as a candidate.”

Copeman said Dutton needed to “read the room”.

Dutton has a turbulent electoral history in Dickson. He boosted the LNP’s margin into double figures thanks to redistributions at the 2004 election, according to ABC election data.

But in the 2007 election, Dutton suffered an 8.8 per cent swing against him, hanging onto the seat by only 217 votes.

Just before the 2010 election, there was another major redistribution that wiped out his margin. He tried to switch to a vacant Gold Coast seat but was rejected by local branch members, instead re-contesting and winning Dickson.

Dutton’s margin was under 2 per cent in the 2016 election, was boosted with the swing to Scott Morrison in 2019 and fell back under 2 per cent in 2022.

Parties launch campaigns

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Dutton will formally launch their election campaigns over the weekend, as the major parties try to cement their pitches to voters before a slew of public holidays.

Labor’s formal launch will be in Perth on Sunday, while the Coalition is expected to hold its event in Sydney on the same day.

Campaign launches tend to be held much later during the five-week race but the Easter long weekend is approaching, and the Anzac Day weekend follows at the same time as school holidays.

Up to half of voters cast their ballots early, and pre-poll centres for this election will open more than a week after the formal launches.

The steep increase in early voting revealed how little campaigns mattered overall, ANU political scientist Jill Sheppard said.

“The fact that they are going a little bit earlier this year suggests that they have something up their sleeve,” she said.

“The Liberal Party has been pretty wide on policy detail so far, so I suspect that there will be an old-style, big splash announcement … and possibly the same for Labor as well.”

The vast majority of voters at this point had either made their minds up or were getting ready to vote early, Dr Sheppard said.

“What we’ll see in the campaign launches is policy announcements that reveal the exact groups of voters the parties are targeting,” she said.

“Unless one leader was to make a disastrous campaign misstep, it’s not really going to shift folks at this time.

“It’s all about maintaining the appearance of competence.”

Western Australia was key in delivering Mr Albanese his 2022 election victory, with the location of Labor’s launch showcasing its importance to the party’s re-election hopes.

Albanese clocked up his 30th visit to the mining state as prime minister in the first week of the campaign.

Dutton has targeted voters in western Sydney, spruiking the coalition’s cost-of-living measures to those doing it tough in mortgage-belt seats.

-with AAP