With Canberra preparing for a Liberal spill within days, analysts warn a change of leader is not the answer to the party’s electoral woes.

Frontbencher Angus Taylor is widely expected to challenge Sussan Ley for the leadership by the end of the week after a string of dire polls showed plummeting voter support for the Coalition.

The latest Newspoll, conducted during the most recent break-up between the Liberals and Nationals, put the Coalition’s first-preference vote at just 18 per cent, eclipsed by One Nation on 27 per cent.

Former Victorian Labor strategist Kos Samaras warned a change in leadership wouldn’t be a silver bullet.

“The antidote to their problems is not the leader,” the Redbridge Group director. 

“It would be good policy, and that’s a long road ahead of them and isn’t an easy solution.”

Samaras doubted the Coalition could develop robust policies before the 2028 election while also competing with One Nation.

“They are not only declining in support in regional Australia to One Nation – they’ve historically been losing ground to the Labor Party and to independents,” he said.

“Outside of Queensland, they only hold five urban seats among a cluster of voters to the tune of 14.5 million. So they’ve got a lot of problems.”

Key party powerbroker Senator Jonno Duniam, a leading figure in the Liberals’ conservative faction, urged Taylor to effectively put up or shut up.

“If Angus is interested in … the leadership then he should say so,” Duniam said in Canberra on Tuesday.

“That’s something he needs to make clear.”

Taylor, the opposition defence spokesman, believes he has the numbers to win a spill. But logistical challenges mean party members are unlikely to vote until Thursday night or Friday, as senators are tied up in parliamentary committee hearings before then.

Party conventions require any frontbencher who wants to challenge for the leadership to resign from the shadow ministry. Taylor is yet to do so, despite admitting to conversations with colleagues about the Liberals’ future direction.

To arrest the slide in the polls, some Liberals have called for a greater focus on policy development.

“We can talk about leadership until the cows come home, but that is not going to be what Australians look at and go, ‘they’ve got the message, we’re on track again’,” Duniam said.

Fellow Liberal senator Andrew Bragg, a so-called moderate, said policies on housing and migration needed to be the focus.

“Politicians are well paid, they’re sent to Canberra to do policy work and to hold the government to account,” he said.

“We are in control of our own destiny, and we will be even more so if we are forthright on policy.”

Choosing a possible deputy leader is also a potential headache for the Liberals.

Taylor had mooted Jacinta Nampijinpa Price as potential running mate post-election in 2025, but her controversial comments since – including hitting out at Labor’s alleged “mass migration agenda” – would likely rule her out.

Present deputy Ted O’Brien is expected to run again, although the prospect of a middle-aged men as leader and deputy may not be attractive to female voters.

Potential female candidates include Angie Bell, Zoe McKenzie and Melissa McIntosh, while Victorian Tim Wilson – who regained the seat of Goldstein from teal Zoe Daniel – could also be in the running.

-with AAP