Labor’s proposed 2019 changes to capital gains tax and negative gearing could have led to nearly 300,000 more homes for owner-occupiers instead of property investors, according to analysis commissioned by the Greens.

The Parliamentary Library analysis combined research from economist Michael Warlters at the NSW Treasury with Census data to examine the effect of the since-abandoned Labor policy.

It would have halved the capital gains tax discount for property investors and limited negative gearing to newly built properties.

The analysis found that, based on Warlter’s model, which estimated a 4.7 per cent boost to home ownership under Labor’s plans, there would have been 296,902 more dwellings owned by owner-occupiers.

That would mean 774,000 people would have lived in homes as owner-occupiers, not renters, if the policies were implemented, the analysis calculated.

It noted that the Parliamentary Library “cannot comment on the validity or accuracy of the Warlters model”.

Australians can offset investment losses against their taxable incomes using negative gearing.

Combined with capital gains tax, the policy costs the federal budget about $20 billion a year.

Experts previously told The New Daily that a negative gearing cap would help ease housing pressures.

Morrison’s miracle

Matt Grudnoff, senior economist at the Australia Institute, said the benefits of these tax concessions were shared unequally.

“More than two-thirds of the concessions [are] going to the top 10 per cent of income earners, while the bottom half of taxpayers get less than one-tenth of the concessions,” he said.

“These tax concessions are also making home ownership more concentrated, with just 1 per cent of taxpayers owning a quarter of all investment properties.”

Scott Morrison’s “miracle” 2019 election win put changes to tax concessions on the backburner.

But the Greens have pushed the Albanese government for more action on housing since it won the 2022 federal election.

Max Chandler-Mather, the Greens spokesperson for housing and homelessness, said a broad consensus of economists, housing experts and MPs from the Liberal and Labor parties supported scrapping the “destructive handouts”.

“They are locking out over 770,000 renters out of home ownership by driving up prices and rigging the system in favour of banks and landlords,” he said.

“The Prime Minister [Anthony Albanese] and [Opposition Leader] Peter Dutton had the chance to buy an affordable home in the ’90s when they were young, and all the Greens are pushing for is meaningful reform that ensures the next generation gets that same chance.”

Pulling the lever

The Albanese government has so far resisted calls to make changes to tax concessions at the next federal election.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles said on Thursday that “we’re not doing negative gearing”.

“That’s been made manifestly clear and none of that has changed,” he said.

“The Prime Minister has made that clear.”

Treasurer Jim Chalmers, however, recently revealed that he had asked his department to model the effect of changes to the two maligned policies.

Chalmers previously criticised the former Coalition government for refusing “to pull the lever”.

“They are not prepared to pull the most meaningful lever when it comes to dealing with housing affordability,” he said in 2017 during a parliamentary debate.

“They will not do anything meaningful about negative gearing and capital gains, and, as a consequence, they will not do anything meaningful about housing affordability in this country, particularly for young people.”