The growing furore surrounding the Albanese government’s handling of recognising Palestinian statehood and a former senator crossing the floor could create fertile grounds for a teal-style campaign of Muslim voters in the seats of government ministers, experts warn.

These “faith-based” voters could create serious ramifications for Labor, as the results in Britain’s recent election highlight how potent the issue could be for the Albanese government.

Following rising tensions after the expulsion of Fatima Payman, when the now independent senator from Western Australia crossed the floor to support a Greens motion to recognise the Palestinian state, Labor and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese criticised the concept of “faith-based political parties”.

Payman said that she didn’t believe that it “would be wise to have a Muslim party” in Australia, but has pushed back against Albanese’s claim that it would “undermine social cohesion”.

“I just don’t think that would be conducive to the way things function in our democratic system,” she told The Conversation podcast.

“It’s incorrect to … not just politicise the Muslim faith, but also to make it seem like they’re a threat to social cohesion or it’s going to impact the way we politically engage.”

Lessons from overseas

The British Labour Party may have won the United Kingdom general election in a landslide earlier this month, ending 14 years in the political wilderness, but it lost several seats to pro-Palestinian independents.

Dr Zareh Ghazarian, a political scientist from Monash University, said there were factors in Australia’s electoral system that would play into Labor’s favour when compared to the results of the British election.

“The electoral and voting system in Australia is a different system than what is used in the United Kingdom: We have a preferential system and compulsory voting,” he said.

“There is a shift in Australian politics, however, and we are seeing a rise of new candidates and parties contesting and winning seats by focusing on a very specific policy agenda.”

He said that single-issue and ‘faith-based’ parties had a long history in Australia.

The Muslim Vote, a grassroots organisation, is aiming to target seats held by Labor ministers with large Muslim populations, including Tony Burke and Jason Clare, using a similar model of mobilisation that propelled the teal independents into parliament.

Payman denied she would join the organisation and said that her religion “is private to me”.

The New Daily contacted The Muslim Vote for comment.

Electoral trouble

Payman’s departure from the government benches also resulted in multiple local Labor Party branches declaring support for the wayward senator because her position on recognition of Palestinian statehood matched the ALP platform.

Ghazarian said it wasn’t uncommon for the federal executive of a political party’s position to differ from its rank-and-file members.

“There is some division over the issue and the party seems uncertain about how it can work as a unified group moving forward,” he said.

“It is going to be a very interesting exploration to see if this is going to translate into changing their vote and it’s going to become clearer in the coming weeks.”

He said Labor’s tiny majority and polling suggested that the Albanese government may struggle to hold onto its majority status, with a growing number of Australians willing to vote for non-major parties and independent candidates.

“The Greens stand to benefit by presenting themselves as different from the major parties,” Ghazarian said.

“They’ll be looking at the sort of seats they’re targeting, those inner-urban electorates that are held by Labor, and keep chipping away until they can break in.”