Voters will soon determine the winner of a three-way race to govern the ACT, with the Liberals, Greens and Labor all vying to take the reins.

Unaffordable housing, patchy public transport and the rising cost of living are weighing on Canberrans’ minds as they head to the polls.

The ACT Labor-Greens government faces one of the toughest tests of its 16-year reign on Saturday, with a reinvigorated Liberal opposition under moderate Elizabeth Lee mounting a compelling case for a fresh start.

However, it remains a tall order for Ms Lee to end 23 years of Liberal exile in the nation’s capital, which holds the title of Australia’s most progressive jurisdiction.

For all his detractors, of which there are many, Chief Minister Andrew Barr – the longest-serving incumbent leader in Australia – still commands strong support among electors.

Retiree Andrew Grant was still undecided about who would get his vote in Mr Barr’s central Canberra electorate of Kurrajong, where Ms Lee and Greens leader Shane Rattenbury are also vying for the five seats up for grabs.

While he thought the government was showing signs of complacency, he gave it full marks for its plans to grow housing supply by increasing density and continuing its light rail network build.

“Being an older person, I’m more interested in what’s available for the younger people,” he told AAP outside an early polling centre in Dickson.

“I’m in a walking group and young people are always talking about how expensive housing is.”

The Liberals have made housing a key policy pillar as well, preferring instead to release new land for development on Canberra’s outer fringes and cancelling plans to extend the popular light rail to federal parliament and the southern suburbs.

But they seem to be getting the biggest cut-through on the cost of living.

Ms Lee hopes to capitalise on frustration among homeowners who have seen their rates grow substantially since the government moved to abolish stamp duty in 2012, setting a 2.2 per cent cap on rate increases.

However, with big-spending promises, including a new sports stadium in the centre of town, and no new taxes, she has come under fire for her policy costings.

The Greens, meanwhile, are confident they can build on the record six seats they won in 2020.

Mr Rattenbury, who has been a member of cabinet since 2012, has said he has what it takes to become chief minister in a Greens-led coalition government.

But electoral analyst Ben Raue, who runs the Tally Room website, said it would be difficult for the Greens to increase their representation.

He said a small drop in their vote could cost them an outsized number of seats due to the territory’s Hare-Clark voting system.

He predicts another Labor minority government, given the ACT’s left-leaning nature.

The Greens are also threatened by a strong challenge from independents, led by the David Pocock-backed Independents for Canberra group and their lead candidate Thomas Emerson.

No independents have won a seat in the 25-member Legislative Assembly since 1998 but the success of Senator Pocock and the teals in the 2022 federal election has given them hope.

Almost half of the ACT’s approximately 320,000 enrolled voters have already cast their ballots, meaning results should start flying in at 6pm when early votes are added to the tally.

With no reliable polling to go by, it is anyone’s guess who will hold the reins in the nation’s capital after Saturday night.

Beach battle reaches climax in Liberal-teal fight

More than 150,000 votes are expected to be cast in by-elections but just a few ballots could decide the latest Liberal versus teal battle.

The NSW Liberals are defending three heartland seats in northern Sydney on Saturday, with two expected to be a cakewalk.

But all eyes will be on Pittwater, where a Climate 200-backed former adviser to federal independent MPs Zali Steggall and Sophie Scamps is well within striking distance of snaring the northern beaches seat.

Jacqui Scruby came within a whisker of victory at the March 2023 and has had her chances boosted with the absence of Labor and Greens candidates this time around.

While rising living costs have played a role in the campaign, much of it has whittled down to who is from the area known as the insular peninsula.

Both sides have highlighted their candidate as a local.

But Liberal opponent Georgia Ryburn’s residence a few kilometres outside the electorate has left her resorting to social media ads and robocalls to underline her family’s multi-generational Pittwater links.

“Whether you’ve lived on the Beaches for five years, or 50 years, if you call our community home, you’re a local,” she says in one ad running on Instagram and Facebook.

“And I’ll fight for every one of you.”

Opposition Leader Mark Speakman weighed in on Friday to highlight Ms Ryburn had been school captain of “the local Anglican school” – albeit leaving out the northern beaches school was also well south of Pittwater.

“Liberals are in serious trouble in Pittwater,” election analyst Ben Raue, of the Tally Room, told AAP.

“Scruby came close to winning in 2023 and things haven’t gone well for the Libs recently.”

In an effort to turn the tide, Mr Speakman and several other sitting Liberals has been vigorously doorknocking and campaigning in the neck-and-neck race, trumpeting how voters would get Ms Ryburn and a team of MPs on their side.

“The teals haven’t achieved anything in Canberra, they won’t achieve anything in Macquarie Street,” the Liberal leader told 2GB.

“If you want to tackle the Minns Labor government … you need the Liberals there.”

One Climate 200-backed independent MP shot back hours after his bill to reduce LGBTQI discrimination passed into law.

“Whether it is passing laws … or getting infrastructure funded, we’re able to work with the government to deliver results, not only for our communities, but the entire state,” bill author and independent MP Alex Greenwich said on Friday.

The by-election, triggered by criminal charges being laid against the sitting MP, is being held alongside those in Epping and Hornsby.

Those were sparked by the resignations of former premier Dominic Perrottet and former treasurer Matt Kean.

Liberal candidates Monica Tudehope and James Wallace are expected to triumph easily in the Labor-less races.

Like Ms Ryburn, the duo have links to the area but do not reside there, leaving them unable to vote for themself.

—AAP