Josh Frydenberg has closed the door on a return to politics, and on what many Liberal MPs were hoping would be the party’s path out of purgatory.

The former treasurer was one of six Liberal MPs to lose to independent challengers in urban electorates in 2022, the worst election wipeout in the party’s history.

His decision to accept a job as chairman of an investment bank, Goldman Sachs, ends speculation that he might run again for the seat of Kooyong and lead the Liberals to reclaim inner-city seats that were once the party’s heartland.

“It is a difficult decision and one I have been weighing up for some time,” he said.

Frydenberg, who famously moved in with Scott Morrison while overseeing stimulus programs during COVID-19, said he was enjoying being home with his children.

But pollsters of all kinds had been calling voters in Kooyong recently and sizing up his future in more cold numerical terms.

One poll briefed to The Australian reportedly showed a 16-point rise in his favourability among voters from an ambivalent low when he was running as a senior member of Scott Morrison’s government.

He had stayed active in his community, popping up behind a stall at a local market, an appearance documented on Instagram where his bio still reads “the Honourable Josh Frydenberg”.

Former minister Karen Andrews said this month that if Frydenberg had challenged Morrison and become prime minister, he would have held Kooyong.

Colleagues urged him, but Frydenberg declined.

But the recent polls also point to the bigger dilemma facing Frydenberg in a future contest for the seat.

Progressive voters

Voters in Kooyong support the Voice and want more action on climate change, especially those not aligned to any party, a poll by the Australia Institute found in August.

The Coalition is tied directly to the campaign against the Voice as debate becomes increasingly bitter.

And National MPs have become restive about net-zero climate targets, which the Conservative government in the UK watered down on Thursday.

Frydenberg’s chances in Kooyong were severely damaged by the return of Barnaby Joyce as deputy prime minister and Morrison’s “threadbare” plan to reduce carbon emissions at an international summit in Glasgow.

He was defeated by paediatric neurologist Monique Ryan, who campaigned on more ambitious climate targets.

Most voters who supported teal Independents had voted for Labor or the Greens in the election prior – only 18 per cent had voted Liberal.

It’s now even less clear how a Coalition led by Peter Dutton and a much greater proportion of MPs from Queensland and the Nationals can create a platform that will appeal to urban voters.

Perhaps no one was more aware of this challenge than Frydenberg.

‘Keep Josh’

In a last-ditch appeal to Kooyong voters, he put up billboards urging them to “Keep Josh”.

But his campaign reportedly workshopped another flyer for polling day they decided against printing: “Vote Ryan, Get Dutton”.

Some Liberal MPs were pinning their hopes on Frydenberg’s return as part of a two-term strategy to reclaiming government.

His announcement now cements the leadership of Peter Dutton, whose favourability among voters, polls show, is recovering from its lowest ebb as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s falls.

But for the Victorian Liberal Party, already riven by an ugly factional fight led by the party’s religious right, the prospect of winning back voters in Melbourne now seems much more distant.