Former Coalition minister Stuart Robert resigned on Thursday, ending his remarkable parliamentary career and beginning a preselection battle that is shaping as a major test for the Liberal National Party.

The Coalition’s former spokesman on financial services quit in the face of a looming inquiry into $375 million worth of government contracts awarded to clients of a lobbying outfit part-owned by his friend and former fundraiser who allegedly paid a share of the proceeds into a joint trust.

The shortlist of candidates likely to vie to succeed him presents the LNP with a stark choice about whether to break with the MP’s chequered legacy or continue it.

Reports have variously named two different frontrunners in the preselection contest and contest a likely July byelection in the seat of Fadden.

Both are directly linked to controversial episodes in the outgoing MP’s career.

Unfortunate association

Stuart Robert’s preferred successor is, reportedly, Fran Ward Emmerson.

Her husband’s connection to John Margerison, the businessman at the centre of the scandal that forced Mr Robert out of Parliament, can be revealed for the first time.

Roger Emmerson is a director of United Disability Care, an NDIS provider whose dealings with the government while Mr Robert was the minister in charge of the disability scheme have come under scrutiny.

The company received about $28.7 million via NDIS funding in 2020 while Mr Robert was minister, a Senate estimates hearing was told last year, a jump from about $16 million from the year before.

The ultimate owner of United Disability Care was Mr Margerison, the former head of Mr Robert’s personal fundraising body, the Fadden Forum.

Mr Margerison’s other, separate business interests include a substantial shareholding in Synergy 360, the de facto lobbying firm whose international corporate clients won $375 million in contracts now slated to come before a parliamentary inquiry.

Ms Ward Emmerson is the chair of the body that oversees local LNP branches in Fadden and Mr Emmerson is secretary.

Local members’ votes will decide who wins the preselection and the couple’s positions in the LNP come with exclusive access to party membership rolls – a major edge when collecting votes.

Mr Emmerson is also the Gold Coast regional head of the LNP, and was criticised by one departing moderate state MP who accused him of working against certain candidates in another recent preselection.

Local ally

Local media have named Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell as the clear frontrunner for Fadden.

His first run for council came after Mr Caldwell was forced to walk the plank after being photographed dressed in a pirate’s costume at an adult nightclub, causing him to be dumped as a state election candidate.

As head of the Gold Coast Council’s property development committee, Mr Caldwell exercises considerable influence over decisions affecting the city’s thriving construction industry.

Shortly before the council was due to vote on one such proposal, a $600 million highrise proposed by developer Sunland, Mr Robert sent the councillor a “five-word” text message, but he has refused to reveal its contents.

That parallels the first major scandal to strike Mr Robert’s political career after it was revealed he had delivered a speech to Parliament defending the record of Sunland, which had been written mostly by Sunland’s lobbyist.

There is no suggestion of wrongdoing by either, and an investigation by the Queensland corruption watchdog into Mr Robert’s financing of local councillors’ campaigns did not make adverse findings against either man.

Most impressive resume

Only Mr Caldwell has declared his nomination; Ms Ward Emmerson has until the end of the week to nominate.

But a third candidate has the most impressive resume

Former Queenslander of the Year and surgeon Dr Dinesh Palipana has worked in emergency departments and as a spinal cord injury researcher despite being rendered quadriplegic in a 2010 accident.

Unlike the two other candidates he is not known to be associated with Mr Robert or active in local politics, which some insiders expect to be a significant disadvantage.

LNP figures are otherwise confident they can hold a seat that only briefly once left its fold and which Mr Robert held on a 10.6 per cent margin last May, despite the mounting controversies surrounding his private interests and public duties.

One local source said rumours were swirling that an independent challenger could run in the seat; Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said this week the ALP had not yet decided whether to field a candidate.

The seat takes in some of the Gold Coast’s wealthiest suburbs, such as Sanctuary Cove, Hope Island and Sovereign Island, and is also home to a series of Protestant and evangelical churches.

The contest will be decided by a plebiscite of party members living in Fadden.