Australia’s terrorism threat level has been raised to probable due to an increased risk of politically motivated violence.

Monday’s decision was not due to a single specific incident, but it’s understood there have been eight incidents in Australia investigated by security officials for alleged terrorism or possible terrorist links.

The conflict in the Middle East is also understood to have exacerbated concerns by security agencies about politically motivated violence in Australia, although it is not the direct cause of the threat level rising.

The official terror threat was last raised to probable in 2014, at the height of threats from terrorist group Islamic State. It remained there until November 2022, when it was lowered to possible.

“At that time, we said as a government that this does not mean that the threat from terrorism is extinguished,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.

“Since then, we’ve seen a global rise in politically motivated violence and extremism. Many democracies are working to address this, including our friends in the United States and in the United Kingdom.”

Monday’s decision puts Australia’s terror threat at the middle of a five-level scale.

Australia’s official terror threat has been lifted to probable. Image: Australian government

Albanese said the national security committee met on Monday morning to discuss the change.

“Probable does not mean inevitable and it does not mean there is intelligence about an imminent threat or danger, but the advice that we’ve received is that more Australians are embracing a more diverse range of extreme ideologies,” he said.

“Governments around the world are concerned about youth radicalisation, online radicalisation and the rise of new mixed ideologies.”

ASIO director-general Mike Burgess said more Australians were embracing more extreme ideologies and were prepared to use violence to achieve their cause.

“Politically motivated violence now joins espionage and foreign interference as our principal security concerns,” he said.

“Unfortunately, here and overseas, we are seeing spikes in political polarisation and intolerance and civil debate and unpeaceful protests.”

Burgess said anti-authority beliefs were also growing, along with a decline in trust in democratic institutions.

“This trend increased during Covid, gained further momentum after the terrorist attacks in Israel and accelerated during Israel’s military response,” he said.

“The [Middle East] conflict has fuelled grievances, promoted protest, exacerbated division undermined social cohesion and elevated intolerance.”

Australia’s national terrorism threat level is PROBABLE. Director-General of Security @MikePBurgess says more Australians are embracing extreme ideologies & willing to use violence to advance their cause. Director-General’s statement: https://t.co/srLaIByGTl pic.twitter.com/zqetZ7PCAG

— ASIO (@ASIOGovAu) August 5, 2024

There were also concerns of multiple extremist beliefs being combined to create hybrid ideologies.

Burgess said lone actors were the most likely style of terror attack, often using rudimentary weapons in a crowded or public place.

He also noted that a large number of young people were being radicalised.

“Extremist ideologies, conspiracies, misinformation are flourishing in the online ecosystem and young Australians are particularly vulnerable,” he said.

Albanese said Australians must be able to resolve their differences peacefully and debate political issues like the conflict in Gaza peacefully.

“When the temperature of the security environment is rising, we must lower the temperature of debate,” he said.

“No one is suggesting people should have conformity to particular views, but the way people express things is important.

“It is not normal to have people in occupations for months outside electorate offices, where the work of those electorate offices is to assist people.”

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton praised the work of ASIO and said the world faced precarious times.

“The national security risks that we have because of our values and what we believe in will always be there and we need to make sure that every support is provided to ASIO, and I will make sure that we do that,” he said.

-with AAP