Right or wrong, Liberals’ internal divisions inspire independent thought
Winter Olympian Zali Steggall faces an uphill battle to dislodge Tony Abbott from his blue ribbon seat of Warringah. But the danger for the government is that her message will resonate with disgruntled voters in other more vulnerable seats.
The launch of her independent campaign on the Australia Day weekend revealed real media savvy that was rewarded with extensive national coverage.
It gave voice to many who identify as Liberals or Liberal supporters who feel the party has lurched too far to the right and is captured by out-of-date thinking.
They are still angry over the rejection of Malcolm Turnbull by conservative elements in the party.
These are the elements soon-to-retire cabinet minister Kelly O’Dwyer thinks are giving the party a very bad name.
After the drubbing in the Victorian state election she told colleagues Liberals were widely regarded as “homophobic, anti-women, climate change deniers”.
Mr Abbott is a lightning rod for these perceptions. Indeed, his strident campaigning against marriage equality and climate change scepticism and his inertia on women’s representation in the party bear witness to that.
But his successor Scott Morrison, either out of conviction or necessity, has done nothing to change the situation. Conviction because he is a conservative himself or necessity because he is powerless to take on the conservatives.
Ms Steggall in one of her many media interviews on Monday on RN Breakfast said that while it is very clear what Mr Abbott believes about climate, the policies the wider party has put up “are simply not good enough”.
So when Ms Steggall says Mr Abbott is disconnected from the electorate her charge that though the times “have moved on and he is stuck in the past” apply equally to the Morrison government’s abandoning of Mr Turnbull’s energy policy.
The dismay over the dumping of Mr Turnbull is by no means restricted to Liberals in Warringah.
There are reports out of Melbourne that Julia Banks, the Liberal MP who quit after the knifing of Mr Turnbull, is planning to run against Health Minister Greg Hunt.
The Herald Sun reported that a poll in his electorate of Flinders has found a collapse in the Liberal vote, with Mr Hunt’s role in the demise of Mr Turnbull cited as a reason.
Ms Steggall, in giving herself every chance to defeat Mr Abbott despite him holding the seat for 25 years, points to the rise of independents in Australia.
She says “voters are dissatisfied with the major parties” and she is giving them the opportunity to have their say.
Bill Shorten is convinced that the major party voters are most dissatisfied with is the Liberal Party. It has certainly shown more disunity, dysfunction and chaos than Labor over the past six years.
He says “If it’s not members of the government walking out the door, it’s other Liberal supporters running against the government as independents”.
Scott Morrison knows he has a huge fight on his hands. He is planning to spend much of the week in and around Brisbane shoring up support in seven seats on dangerously thin margins, including that of Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton.
Mr Dutton’s contribution to the chaos was his clumsy lunge at Mr Turnbull’s leadership in August. That ignited the revenge of the moderate Liberals, centrists more in touch with the electorate as the Wentworth by-election demonstrated.
Mr Morrison will give what is billed as a key economic speech in Brisbane during a break from a cabinet meeting. He will say Labor is too big a threat to our prosperity to risk it.
But the prime minister’s problem is too many of his own supporters are coming to the conclusion that sticking with this government is a more scary prospect.
Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics