Polls back Chris Luxon’s National party to win NZ election

Ben McKay
Sep 13, 2023, updated Sep 13, 2023

Polling shows Chris Luxon’s National Party increasing its lead over Labour ahead of the NZ election. Photo: AAP

Chris Luxon is on track to be the next prime minister, one month from polling day, as New Zealand’s election campaign increasingly resembles a study into what the National-led government might look like.

New Zealanders head to the ballot box on October 14, with polling showing Luxon’s centre-right National Party growing a lead over Chris Hipkins’ Labour.

The past six polls released all have Labour slipping to less than 30 per cent and without a path to power from left-leaning support parties the Greens or the Maori Party.

The latest survey, which landed on Wednesday night from TVNZ, had National on 39 per cent ahead of Labour on 28.

Right-wingers ACT and the left-wing Greens are on 10 per cent, with Winston Peters on the cusp of a parliamentary return with NZ First on five per cent.

National appears well poised to end six years of Labour government, with an average lead of nine per cent over Labour across those six polls.

That prospect has put National under the microscope, with questions over its tax polices and public sector cuts dominating the campaign.

A fortnight ago, National released a tax policy offering more than $NZ2 billion ($1.8 billion) in income tax relief each year, funded by new taxes including on offshore gambling companies and foreign home buyers.

Showing the centrality of National’s plans to the campaign, even a fortnight later, the tax plan dominated press conferences on Wednesday by Luxon in Auckland and Hipkins in Dunedin.

Economists have cast doubt over the veracity of the forecast tax take, leading to Labour attacks of a fiscal hole.

Given National has also pledged to cut the public service – excluding frontline health and education – by 6.5 per cent, Hipkins says National’s shortfall will see “very significant” cuts.

“New Zealanders are waiting for them to show how their numbers add up … billions of dollars for which they cannot account for,” Hipkins said.

Luxon said he was “absolutely rock solid and confident that we know what we’re doing”.

Based on the polls, voters are siding with Luxon, a former Air New Zealand chief executive.

Given National is likely to need support from libertarians ACT to govern – which argues for a greater cull of government programs – Labour says Luxon will be pushed into savage cuts beyond National’s promises.

Luxon told breakfast television show AM he could work with the right-wingers but was not one himself.

“I consider myself very much a centrist and I’m very much a pragmatist,” he said.

“I came to solve problems because I’m sick and tired of us talking about things and not getting things done.”

National is yet to release its full policy costings and is currently pouring over the government books, released by Treasury on Tuesday.

Treasury showed a slumping tax take and a return to surplus pushed out to 2027, but a brighter prediction for the NZ economy which will dodge recession this year against previous forecasts.

Opposition finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis said swollen debt showed the need for fiscal restraint.

“Over these next few years it’s going to be very very tight in New Zealand,” she told Radio NZ.

Finance Minister Grant Robertson pointed to GDP growth of almost seven per cent since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, a better figure than much of the developed world.