At first sight it would be easy to tie Anthony Albanese’s spectacular nosedive in the latest Newspoll’s approval ratings to the continuing erosion of support for the Voice to Parliament referendum.

Spectacular it surely is.

In the six weeks since the last Newspoll, Albanese’s net approval (positive versus negative) has plummeted 12 points. He now sits at minus one.

Labor’s two-party preferred lead has been trimmed to six points, but for the first time since the election the Coalition’s primary vote has topped the government by two points.

The Newspoll carries considerable weight with politicians because of its record over the years of being close to the mark when it really counts.

What has caught the eye of seasoned political hard-heads is the reversal in support for the referendum in the 35 to 49 age group.

These are the people hardest hit by cost-of-living pressures. They have the biggest mortgages, are balancing work-life demands with greater difficulty and scratching to pay bills, especially as interest rates climbed relentlessly in the past year.

Negative mood

RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras believes this puts people in a negative mood and the longer the government is in office, the bigger a target it becomes for their anger and frustration.

Even though the Prime Minister assures us he and his ministers can “chew gum and walk at the same time”, hard-pressed voters have a darker view of the world which Samaras says is reflected in the way they respond when pollsters come calling.

Albanese’s biggest challenge is to assure them, at the very least, that the alternative has nothing better on offer. So far, it would not be a hard argument to make.

Perhaps if the Reserve Bank board meeting on Tuesday for the last time under the leadership of the controversial governor Philip Lowe keeps official interest rates on hold, as economists almost universally think will happen, moods may begin to lighten.

Blame game without solutions

In the meantime Peter Dutton has the luxury of pinning as much of the blame on Albanese and the government as he can without having to come up with any solutions of his own.

But entrenched expedient negativity has its own dangers for him and the Opposition – which can also be divined in the Newspoll.

Dutton remains very unpopular and on the two-party preferred result is a long way from being in an election-winning position.

Maybe it has dawned on the Opposition Leader that his so far successful assault on the ‘Yes’ case is doing nothing to win back the urban voters who deserted the Liberals for the teal independents.

Some of his mystified colleagues see Dutton’s stunning second referendum announcement on the weekend aimed at these voters.

It has all the appearances of an own goal. It torpedoes arguments about the cost of the current referendum and charges of it being divisive or racist to single out one group in the Constitution.

All of a sudden it is “right and respectful to recognise Indigenous Australians in the Constitution”. Dutton says it has been Liberal policy at recent elections.

He even says he would legislate a Voice for local and regional First People advising the government about their issues.

Bad track record

Eroding any credibility to the promise is Dutton and the Liberals’ record in government.

They had three terms and didn’t progress a recognition referendum, nor did they, as promised, legislate Voice advisory committees.

Rather than showing respect to First Peoples, the Dutton referendum treats them with high-handed disdain because it rejects the framing of the sort of recognition they were invited to formulate by Liberal prime ministers.

Albanese in Parliament accused Dutton of being “all about politics and not substance”.

The contradictions, confusion, fear and loathing we are getting from the ‘No’ campaign are giving new meaning to the old quip, “politics is Hollywood for ugly people”.

It may take much more than John Farnham’s rousing You’re the Voice anthem to overcome these obstacles.

But politics was always at play. Australia is, after all, a free country with contestability a hallmark, something the ‘Yes’ campaign has less than six weeks to come to terms with.

Paul Bongiorno AM is a veteran of the Canberra Press Gallery, with more than 40 years’ experience covering Australian politics