Norfolk Island residents are closely watching as a tropical storm off the Queensland coast threatens to develop into a cyclone and track south.

The tropical low off in the Coral Sea Queensland is expected to develop into a cyclone before the weekend, the Bureau of Meteorology said on Wednesday.

Likely to be called Cyclone Gabrielle, it is expected to become a severe category three cyclone late on Thursday, bringing strong and gusty coastal winds.

It is not predicted to touch the Australian mainland. But for the approximately 2000 residents of Norfolk Island, it poses a much more direct threat.

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Forecaster Weatherzone said models predicted a low pressure centred almost directly on Norfolk Island by Saturday.

“That means it could be facing a category two tropical cyclone, with sustained wind speeds of 89 to 117km/h, and typical gusts over open flat land or seas of 125 to 164km/h,” it wrote on Wednesday.

There are warnings of damaging winds, heavy rain and dangerous seas and swell for Norfolk Island for the weekend.

The weather bureau says cyclones are not uncommon on Norfolk Island, which averages about one a year during summer and autumn.

In coming days, showers and wave and swell activity are also expected to increase along Queensland’s central coast before extending to southern coastal areas and waters as the Coral Sea weather system pushes south.

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Severe weather warnings for surf and swells would be determined by the track and intensity of the tropical cyclone, the bureau said.

On the other side of the country, another tropical low off north-western Western Australia became a tropical cyclone called Freddy on Monday night.

By Wednesday morning, the BOM said Freddy, a category three cyclone, lay well north of WA and posed no threat to the Australian coast.

“It is expected to intensify further to a category four system during Wednesday, whilst moving west-south-west over open waters further away from Western Australia,” it said.

A third weather system in the same region, near the Cocos Islands, has a low chance of forming into a cyclone. It continues to be monitored.

“[It] is moving to the west-south-west and passing well south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands Wednesday morning,” the bureau said.

” It is expected to continue moving west-south-west before passing out of the Australian region … during Thursday. Gales may develop on the southern side during Wednesday and the low could strengthen to tropical cyclone intensity on Thursday morning.”

Bureau releases 2022 review

The cyclones comes as the Bureau of Meteorology released its review of 2022’s weather.

The report found what many would expect: 2022 was warm and wet for most of Australia.

The Bureau said the national mean temperature was 0.50C warmer than the 1961 to 1990 average.

This made last year the 22nd warmest year since records began in 1910, equal with 2006.

For most of northern Australia, Tasmania and parts of the west coast, maximum temperatures were above average.

However, in NSW, southern Queensland and southern parts of Australia, the the maximum temperature was below average.

Subsequently for most of Australia, minimum temperatures were “above or very much above” average.

2022 the ninth-wettest year on record

In terms of rainfall, it was 26 per cent above the 1961 to 1990 annual average, making last year the ninth-wettest year on record since 1900.

“Rainfall was very much above average for the south-eastern quarter of the mainland, where persistent rain saw significant flooding affecting large areas, multiple times during the year,” the Bureau said.

“Spring in 2022 was the second-wettest on record for Australia, and the wettest on record for the Murray–Darling Basin, for New South Wales and for Victoria.”

With a state average of 863.6mm of rainfall in 2022, NSW experienced its second wettest year on record in 2022, after 1950.

Sydney had 2,530 mm rainfall, which is 121 per cent above average, making it the state capital’s wettest year since 1858.

2022 was Sydney’s wettest year on record.

Victoria experienced its fifth wettest year on record with an average across the state of 873.1mm. But 2022 was the state’s highest rainfall record since 1974.

Brisbane had 2,037mm of rain last year, making it the fifth-wettest year on record, while the state’s average was 778.1 mm.

However, in western Tasmania, much of the north of the Northern Territory and the far south-west of Western Australia, rainfall was below average.

The high levels of rain across eastern Australia was thanks to, and consistent with, the wet phase of natural climate variability in the region.

Namely a La Niña, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole in winter and spring, and a persistently positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode from mid-autumn, the Bureau said.

“The 2022–23 La Niña has been the third in a row,” the Bureau said.

“It is only the fourth time 3 La Niña events in a row have been observed in the Bureau record since 1900 (others were 1954–57, 1973–76 and 1998–2001).”