The primary vote of both major parties has fallen in the latest Newspoll, leaving preference deals with independents and minor parties as a potential deciding factor in the May 21 federal election.

The exclusive Newspoll conducted for The Australian between April 14 and 17 found support for Labor had fallen to 36 per cent, down one point from a week ago, while the Coalition’s primary vote also dropped one point to 35 per cent.

It translates to a 53-47 two-party-preferred lead for Labor based on preference flows at the last election. This would ensure a majority ALP government.

The six-point margin is the same as a week earlier when the election was called.

But with 29 per cent of voters indicating they would support an independent or a minor party, both parties face the prospect of being forced to negotiate with an expanded cross bench in the House of Representatives.

#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 35 (-1) ALP 36 (-1) GRN 12 (+2) ON 4 (+1) UAP 4 (0) #auspol

— GhostWhoVotes (@GhostWhoVotes) April 18, 2022

Perhaps more worrying for the major parties, the combined support is at the lowest level on record for an election campaign.

The Newspoll found support for the Greens had increased two points to 12 per cent, and Pauline Hanson’s One Nation lifted a point to 4 per cent, equal with the United Australia Party.

Other minor parties, including independents, fell a point to 9 per cent.

This latest result compares unfavourably with the same point in the 2019 election campaign, when the Coalition was 38 per cent (down 3 per cent) and support for the ALP was at the same level (36 per cent).

Ultimately, Scott Morrison lifted the Coalition’s primary vote to 41.4 per cent to secure the bare majority of 77 seats in the 151-seat House of Representatives.

Labor finished with a primary vote of 33.3 per cent.

#Newspoll 2PP is ALP 53/LNP 47. That SHOULD be a Labor majority on a uniform swing, but with primaries like this … @australian https://t.co/VqJq6dr8wc

— Richard Ferguson (@RichAFerguson) April 18, 2022

The Coalition faces challenges in key metropolitan Liberal seats, such as Josh Frydenberg’s Kooyong and Tim Wilson’s Goldstein in Victoria, Dave Sharma in Wentworth and Trent Zimmerman in North Sydney in New South Wales, and the retiring Nicolle Flint in South Australia’s Boothby.

Julia Gillard presided over Australia’s last hung parliament in 2010, when she secured a supply-and-confidence arrangement with the Greens and independents Andrew Wilke, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor.