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Rates to stay on hold despite falling $A

The Reserve Bank is not expected to raise its interest rate until at least early 2015, but that might come sooner if the Australian dollar keeps falling.

All 13 economists surveyed by AAP forecast the cash rate will remain at 2.5 per cent after the RBA’s board meeting on Tuesday, and for the rest of 2014.

Eight of those are predicting a hike in the first half of 2015, which would be the first interest rate rise in over four years.

Since the RBA board’s last meeting, the Australian dollar has fallen six per cent to as low as 86.63 cents.

John Caelli, ME Bank General Manager Markets, said the RBA’s key focus remains on providing conditions to support business investment and employment.

“The RBA has flagged that measures other than interest rates may be more appropriate to address the issue of house prices,” he said.

“The RBA minutes continue to refer to a period of stability in interest rates and so we expect any rises in rates won’t occur until the first half of 2015.”

The central bank is concerned soaring house prices and rapidly growing investor activity could pose a risk to banking stability and the economy, and has raised the possibility of changing regulations to curb risky lending to property investors.

An unchanged rate will be welcome news for 49 per cent of Aussies who are paying down their home loan faster with additional repayments, according to a recent ME Bank survey.

Commonwealth Bank economist John Peters said the focus on Tuesday will be on what the RBA says, if anything, about the local currency.

“The fall in the Australian dollar is a very welcome development for the central bank and will help the transition to non-mining led growth,” he said.

“It also gives the RBA more scope to hike rates amid rising concerns about the elevated level of investor activity in the housing market.”

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