Earlier Ms Rowell had said smaller funds, many of which are in negative contribution territory, would be pressured by APRA to merge to improve their viability.
Shrinkage presents the funds with with two problems. They have to adopt a more conservative investment strategy to make sure they have liquidity available to fund withdrawals by members regardless of the situation of volatile investment markets.
This means they face lower investment returns which compounds their shrinkage problem. Also, as funds shrink, their management, investment and administration costs become a larger per centage of the overall fund size, again compounding their returns problems.
Ms Rowell also told the conference the super industry faced difficulties “responding to the changing demographic” as the population ages.
“The system has shifted from mostly accumulation to have more drawdown. One of the industry’s biggest challenges will be adjusting to change while maintaining trust,” she said.
This trust, she said, was under threat because of public disputes between the retail and industry funds sectors. Their representatives are often in conflict over issues like regulatory changes, investment performance, administration costs and the rules around financial advice.
“The industry is its own worst enemy,” she said.
“It sends a lot of messages in a negative way that causes distress and undermines trust. The industry needs to be more positive about what it does rather than constantly throwing rocks at each other.”
Research group IBISWorld forecast last year that industry revenue will drop by as much as $165 billion next financial year, from $284 billion in 2016-17 down to $119.4 billion due to investment market weakness and ageing.
But despite the expected revenue slippage, the total amount of money in Australia’s super pool is tipped to keep growing over the next two years from the current level of almost $2.2 trillion to more than $2.4 trillion. By 2020-21, IBISWorld predicts that Australia’s total super assets will be close to $4 trillion.