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Home owners brace for Tuesday and another interest rate hike

Economists see no chance the Reserve Bank  won't continue lifting rates.

Economists see no chance the Reserve Bank won't continue lifting rates.

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s September cash rate decision will dominate the week’s economic news alongside economic growth figures due midweek.

On Tuesday, mortgage holders will be eyeing the official cash rate decision nervously, with another hike broadly expected.

Most economists and analysts – 23 out of the 36 questioned by Finder – predict a 50 basis point hike.

This will take the cash rate to 2.35 per cent.

However, the bulk of experts – 25 out of 36 – also expect the September hike to be followed by a hold in October.

While the central bank has warned of more hikes to come, some economists can see the bank pausing its aggressive tightening next month to see how the market is responding.

“The rate increases in recent months are yet to be fully felt by the market so we believe there’s a case for the Reserve Bank to take stock of the impacts to date,” Laing+Simmons director Leanne Pilkington said.

The ABS will release its national accounts report, which includes the key gross domestic product numbers, for the June quarter on Wednesday.

Slather of stats and data

Commonwealth Bank economists are predicting the economy to have grown by 0.8 per cent in the quarter, while NAB’s chief economist Alan Oster expects a 0.7 per cent quarterly increase.

On Thursday, central bank Governor Philip Lowe will deliver a speech on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the Anika Foundation in Sydney.

The ABS will also release trade data as well as payroll jobs figures.

At the end of the week, the National Skills Commission will provide a preliminary update on job vacancies for the month.

The national statistics bureau will also release “monthly business turnover indicator” data on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Australian stock exchange is expected to open lower on Monday after Wall Street ended down on Friday amid ongoing worries about the European gas crisis.

There will be a few key data releases before the central bank’s board meets on Tuesday, including business indicators for the June quarter from the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Melbourne Institute’s monthly inflation gauge and ANZ’s job advertisements report will also be released on Monday.

The US S&P 500 lost 1.06 per cent to end at 3,925.62 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.31 per cent, to close at 11,631.01. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.03 per cent, to 31,329.19.

US markets are closed on Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

On the local market, the Australian Securities Exchange September SPI200 futures contract fell 16 points to 6792 points, pointing to the softer trading start to the week.

On Friday, the benchmark S&P/ASX200 index finished at at 6828.7, down 0.25 per cent, while the broader All Ordinaries dropped 0.33 per cent to 7056.3.

-AAP

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