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Property slump is slowing, but the direction is still down

Sydney and Melbourne expected to be worst hit.

Sydney and Melbourne expected to be worst hit. Photo: Getty

Property prices across the nation have taken a pummelling over the past 12 months.

And while the downturn started to ease in March, the pain is far from over, a wide-ranging analysis of Australian economists has found.

Property prices could fall by almost 8 per cent by the end of 2019, with units in Sydney and Melbourne expected to be worst hit, according to a RBA cash rate survey of 40 economists by consumer comparison website, Finder.

The median house price in Sydney (measured over the past three months) currently sits at $930,000. But with a 6.21 per cent decline, as forecast by the economists, prices could plummet nearly $60,000, to a median of $872,242 by the end of the year.

Property prices could fall by almost 8 per cent by the end of 2019. Graph: Finder

The Melbourne median house price is tipped to fall by almost $50,000 by 2020.

Unsurprisingly, the only capital city with increasing property prices this year is expected to be Hobart, with the median house value on track to rise by 1.42 per cent, the equivalent of an $6559 uplift.

Chief economist at Ernst & Young Jo Masters told The New Daily that within the context of the housing bubble, a drop of almost 8 per cent wasn’t unreasonable.

“This cycle is different in the sense that the slowdown was initially driven by a tightening in credit lending, not the price of credit or an interest hike,” Ms Masters said.

“Until recently we would have seen cycles come to an end when the RBA cut rates and that’s not the case.

“The broad consensus is that there’s a 20 per cent fall between peak to trough, which means we are halfway there.

“Eight per cent does seem reasonable. It may sound really large, but you need to take into account the rise we’ve had in house prices.

“For Sydney and Melbourne that would take prices to their 2015 levels, so in the context of the rise we’ve had it’s not actually that headline-grabbing.”

Independent economist Stephen Koukoulas told The New Daily that prices could remain weak for at least six, but possibly as much as 12 months.

But he believes the worst of the bust is probably over.

“I think the Armageddon scenarios are very unlikely at this stage,” Mr Koukoulas said.

“By the year end, I think we will have seen a stabilising of house price declines.

“While credit has tightened, affordability has improved quite markedly, [auction] clearance rates are slowly improving, there seems to be a bit more buyer interest out there and interest rates are low.

“If prices are falling at around a 0.5 or 1 per cent a month, then we could see another 5 per cent come off from today’s levels, but then I think the falls will moderate.”

A win for first-time buyers

Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the cooling market could be just what some first-time buyers need to get on the property ladder.

“With the highest median house and unit price in the country, it’s not surprising that Sydney is expected to be hit hardest by the property downturn,” he said.

“If the predictions hold true, Melbourne and Sydney property still have another 6 to 8 per cent to drop this year. This means $60,000 more knocked off the average property price in Sydney.

“While this makes it harder for existing home owners to build up equity, it could make Sydney an attractive market for first-time buyers with a deposit saved,” Mr Cooke said.

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