‘If you tax my electric soldering irons, I’ll tax your frozen oysters.’

That was the threat China hoped would avert a trade war with the United States.

But it failed. At 12:01 am on Friday morning (Washington time), US President Donald Trump pushed the button on new tariffs on $US34 billion-worth of Chinese imports.

In so doing, he took the first step in what many experts fear could be an outright trade war between the two biggest economies in the world.

The effects of the first step may not be overly serious. The tariffs only apply to 6 per cent of Chinese imports to the US.

But the Chinese look certain to retaliate in kind. If they do, Mr Trump has said he will retaliate against the retaliation, which could escalate the whole affair to an outright trade war.

In fact, on Thursday the president said he might whack tariffs on all the nearly $US600 billion-worth of imports from China. If he does, China will almost certainly retaliate again.

The result would be unpredictable, but most  experts say it would be disastrous for the global economy – potentially leading to the worst economic shock since the global financial crisis.

Prisms and sea cucumbers

Around 1000 Chinese imports will now be subject to a 25 per cent tax upon entry to the US – meaning they will now be 25 per cent more expensive.

By making Chinese products more expensive, Mr Trump hopes to give a boost to US companies making similar products.

Let’s take dishwashers – one of the few classes of consumer goods included in the list.

Without tariffs, a US-made dishwasher might cost $1000, while a Chinese imported one might cost $900.

After the tariffs, the Chinese one would cost $1125, while the US-made one would still cost $1000. So the tariffs would be great for US dishwasher makers.

But they wouldn’t be so great for consumers, who would be forced to spend an extra $100 at least.

Actually, Mr Trump has been politically savvy in his choice of what imports to tax. There are virtually no consumer goods on the list. Most of them are electrical parts used in industrial machinery and vehicles – meaning the average consumer won’t feel it in the hip pocket, and therefore will not be inclined to vote against Trump at the next election.

The full list includes such obscure products as ‘subassies with two or more PCBs or ceramic substrates’, ‘microwave tubes’, ‘prisms, mounted, for optical uses’, and ‘Electron beam microscopes fitted with equipment specifically designed for the handling and transport of semiconductor devices or reticles’.

Not exactly your everyday consumer goods.

China’s retaliatory list is more relatable, comprising mostly meat, fish and vegetable products.

But there are some odd things on there, including ‘fresh or chilled whole and half piglets’, ‘frozen duck pieces and offal’, ‘frozen Nile perch and snakeheads’, ‘live, fresh or chilled sea cucumbers’, and ‘uncombed cotton’.

It also includes electric cars.

So are there any winners from this?

Professor Tony Makin, a trade expert at Griffith University, said while some small pockets of the US economy might benefit, overall the tariffs would be damaging.

“The tariffs are positive for the industries that are protected – that is, companies that compete against the Chinese companies subject to the tariffs,” he told The New Daily.

“But it will increase prices and make those companies inefficient – it’ll cause them to slack off.”

He said blue collar industries in the Midwest had been “hollowed out”, leaving a lot of people without jobs, partly as a result of cheap imports from China.

“To some extent the industries protected will be beneficiaries in the short term. But from an economy-wide perspective there is no net-gain. It will make things more expensive,” Professor Makin said.

Roland Rajah, director of the global economy program at the Lowy Institute, agreed.

“No one wins in a trade war. It’s cutting off your nose to spite your face,” he said.

“But one difference between Donald Trump and everyone else is he’s not afraid of the adverse outcomes of protectionism.”

Mr Rajah said it was impossible to predict whether an outright trade war – meaning tariffs on everything, rising prices, and escalating tensions – would come to pass.

But if it did, he said the Chinese economy would “slow down quite a lot”, and this would have serious flow-on effect for Australia, whose number one trading partner is China.