What a Grexit means for Australia
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The clock is ticking on Greece’s June 30 deadline to repay 1.5 billion euro ($A2.20 billion) in debt, or default and maybe leave the Eurozone.
The issue dominates headlines but, leaving aside the ethical arguments, should we in Australia care about a country that struggles to get into the top 50 world economies by size?
• How the big banks are robbing Greek pensioners
• Greece talks end in failure
• Greece could leave EU
What’s going on?
The key issue for Greece this week was not its massive public debt but whether or not the European Central Bank would stop funding its banks. Fears of that sparked a run on the banks, with many Greeks putting their money under mattresses.
Signs of an 11th-hour deal emerged on Monday, with Greece’s creditors positive about a government plan offering concessions on austerity measures such as pension cuts and tax hikes.
Meanwhile, Greece is seeking 7.2 billion euro ($A10.57 billion) in bailout aid and debt relief from the IMF.
Does any of this affect Australia?
Greek Finance Minister Yianis Varoufakis. Photo: Getty
On the surface no, in reality yes. Greece itself is not significant but it is one of 19 pillars of the 16-year-old Eurozone, which is a significant economic force. If one of those pillars falls, it affects Europe, the US, Asia and Australia. Tomorrow? probably not. Down the track, yes.
People thought the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers was not a big deal at the time, but it contributed to the GFC, said University of NSW institute of global finance director Professor Fariborz Moshirian.
“Psychologically we didn’t feel the interconnectedness – that is the key word – of global finance,” he told AAP.
If Greece defaults, its creditors – including other economically unstable countries such as Italy – are left holding its debt.
The euro’s value would fall, increasing the size of US dollar debt for Euro countries, while others such as Australia would witness falls in the value of their euro currency reserves.
“If financial markets become volatile that could come into our stock exchange, with a psychological impact dampening the sentiment of investors, consumers and economic activities,” Prof Moshirian said.
Australia is home to a lot of Greeks. What about them?
Melbourne alone is believed to have the largest Greek population of any city outside Greece.
Many of the 400,000 to 500,000 people in Australia of Greek ancestry have funds tied up in the country.
“It is not an easy thing to measure but a Grexit affects migration, funds over there are brought back or lost, expenditure (in Australia) can be slowed down,” IG market strategist Evan Lucas says.
Why won’t Greece do as its creditors ask to avoid default?
Melbourne: the most Greek city in the world outside Greece. Photo: Shutterstock
The country’s Syriza government was elected on an anti-austerity, anti-reform mandate.
Many Greeks see their already poor country as being asked to continually suffer, with more cuts to pensions and health funding while the jobless rates soar.
Creditors from countries such as Germany are viewed as far richer, and meeting their needs means imposing more suffering on the old and sick.
Sure, Greece has got itself into this mess by spending what it didn’t have over many years, but people tend to exist in the now and it feels unfair.
So what happens now?
The odds would seem to be on wiser political heads prevailing because it is in all parties’ interests for Greece to remain in the Eurozone.
The Euro authorities appear to hold the better cards because if Greece refuses it risks the collapse of its banking system and bankruptcy.
A return to a Greek drachma currency would be a disaster, says Prof Moshirian, with any tourism benefits outweighed by its weak value, buying power, rises in debt, interest rates and unemployment. There is no historical precedence for an exit, and there are doubts about whether Greece will implement promised changes.
The story is far from over though, with Greece still heavily debt laden, says Morgans senior private client adviser Bill Chatterton.
“We will still be left with a country that will need to make serious changes to they way they do lots of things: paying taxes and finding jobs for the poor people and restructuring to a modern economy,” he said.
-AAP