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November sales ‘last hurrah’ for spending

A smaller than usual boost in November spending suggests interest rate rises are starting to bite.

A smaller than usual boost in November spending suggests interest rate rises are starting to bite. Photo: AAP

The Black Friday sales drove the usual boost in spending for November, but compared to prior discounting seasons retail spending was a little depressed.

The 6.4 per cent jump in retail spending as measured by CommBank’s household spending intentions index was lower than normal, suggesting consumers are starting to respond to rising interest rates and higher prices.

The index, which draws on Commonwealth Bank payments data and Google Trends search data, lifted by a modest 1.9 per cent overall for the month, representing a slowdown in the pace of growth.

“The index’s narrow rise in November could be something of a ‘last hurrah’, with underlying spending trends showing household are hesitant to spend too much as interest rate hikes flow through in increased bills and higher,” CommBank chief economist Stephen Halmarick said.

Transport spending lurched 6.5 per cent over the four weeks, largely due to elevated petrol prices, particularly in early November.

Health and fitness also saw strong gains, lifting five per cent for the month of November.

Home buying also rose 3.9 per cent – but is down 24.8 per cent for the year – and utilities surged by 1.4 per cent.

Travel dragged the indicator down, losing 6.6 per cent for the month (but is up 14.2 per cent annually) along with entertaining, which was down 4.4 per cent.

“With the Reserve Bank of Australia having increased interest rates by 300 basis points in 2022, household budgets will become more constrained into the new year, putting further downward pressure on spending,” Mr Halmarick said.

ANZ and Roy Morgan’s consumer confidence figures, released every Tuesday, will shed more light on the consumer psyche.

NAB is also due to release its business survey and the Australian Bureau of Statistics will drop overseas arrivals and departures and business turnover data.

– AAP

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