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The Stats Guy: How and why Kiwis love making Australia home

Australian skills shortages in mining, logistics, manufacturing, and construction attract workers from across the ditch.

Australian skills shortages in mining, logistics, manufacturing, and construction attract workers from across the ditch. Photo: Getty

New Zealand and Australia are close friends. Citizens of one country can work without major restrictions in the other country. The visa schemes are in fact so loose than Kiwis view Australia as an extension of their lovely Aotearoa and think of us as their West Island.

Highly scientific map from a random online meme.

Can we predict when Kiwis move west? We can’t predict when and why people might move for personal reasons, but economic migration patterns are clear and predictable.

We must simply compare differences in economic conditions between the two countries. In short, if things look up in Australia while things look down in New Zealand, we welcome more Kiwis to Australia.

Let’s start with the most important economic indicator. When Australia records a lower unemployment rate than New Zealand, more Kiwis than usual pack their bags and fly to the West Island in search of work.

Closely linked to the unemployment rate are economic indicators such as wages, economic growth, and cost of living. These indicators also closely correlate with migration waves from New Zealand.

Australia feels like an underdog at times and runs a simplistic economy (exporting only four things – mining, agriculture, international education, tourism) but compared to New Zealand the labour market looks rather large and diverse.

Australian skills shortages in mining, logistics, manufacturing, and construction attract workers from across the ditch.

As a generalisation, Kiwis come to Australia to work. The age profile of the New Zealand born population in Australia reflects that.

People in the best working age (in their 30s, 40s, and 50s) are most prominent. The relative lack of New Zealanders in their 70s and 80s suggest it’s rather common to retire back in Aotearoa after a career in Australia.

Retirement is truly well earned for our Kiwi workers. They work in physically demanding jobs. Almost 20 per cent of all scaffolders in Australia are Kiwis. That’s remarkable considering they only make up 2 per cent of the Australian workforce.

Just read through the table below and you see the holes in the Australian labour force that are being closed by our cousins from New Zealand.

If we look at the same data but sort for total employment, it is no surprise that most Kiwis work in the most common jobs. That’s to be expected.

But where do Kiwis move to? That’s easy to answer. The Gold Coast. If they have to, they might go to Brisbane.

The pattern seems clear, if you move to Australia from New Zealand, you chase the sun and move to Queensland.

Or are you simply seeking out the rugby state to feel superior? In either case, the dominance of Gold Coast and Brisbane suburbs in the top 20 destinations for Kiwi workers in Australia is astonishing.

So, how many Kiwis can we expect to come to Australia in the near term? Unemployment in New Zealand is a bit higher (4.6 per cent) than it is in Australia (4.2 per cent).

Economic growth in Australia (+0.2 per cent last quarter) and New Zealand (+0.1 per cent last quarter) is equally unimpressive.

Housing markets in Australia are probably a bit worse on average than in New Zealand too at the moment. I wouldn’t therefore expect a major surge of Kiwis into Australia. This can of course change at a moment’s notice when job opportunities in New Zealand dry up.

In summary, New Zealanders migrate to Australia at scale when economic conditions, such as lower unemployment, higher wages, stronger economic growth, and lower cost of living, make Australia an attractive destination. When New Zealand’s economic indicators look stronger, migration flows back to New Zealand.

Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher is a co-founder of The Demographics Group. His columns, media commentary and public speaking focus on current socio-demographic trends and how these impact Australia. His podcast, Demographics Decoded, explores the world through the demographic lens. Follow Simon on Twitter (X), FacebookLinkedIn for daily data insights in short format.

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