Inflation back on consumers’ minds
Consumer confidence has soured as rising interest rates and prices start to bite.
The weak Australian dollar and an uptick in petrol prices have consumers worried about rising prices.
Consumer confidence has fallen to its lowest level since August, the last time fuel prices spiked.
The 2.8 per cent slide in weekly confidence as measured by an ANZ and Roy Morgan survey released on Tuesday follows a 1.1 per cent drop in the previous week.
The “good time to buy a major household item'” subindex also dropped by a notable 6.2 per cent.
ANZ economist David Plank says household spending has remained resilient despite the apparent concern showing up in consumer sentiment surveys, but he suspects the mismatch can’t go on for much longer.
“The longer confidence remains so low, the greater the prospect that consumers become more cautious, especially with household wealth going backwards due to lower house and equity prices,” he said.
Cost of living is only likely to surge following the latest round of flooding in southeast Australia, Treasurer Jim Chalmers has warned, with some of the best farmland in the country underwater.
“That has obvious consequences for crops and livestock,” he told Sky News.
While Dr Chalmers said it was too early to tell how much damage the floods would do to the federal budget and the economy more broadly, he said the disaster would be factored into the budget’s inflation projections.
At the moment, inflation is expected to peak at 7.75 per cent.
“I will do the work to update that figure, if it needs updating in the budget,” Dr Chalmers said.
High inflation and other economic challenges will be discussed at a meeting of finance ministers in the Asia-Pacific to be attended by assistant treasurer Andrew Leigh.
Dr Leigh said climate change, sustainable development and digital connectivity would also be on the agenda at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Bangkok, Thailand.
Meanwhile, the reasoning behind the Reserve Bank of Australia’s surprise decision to ease back to 25 basis point hikes, instead of the 50 basis point lift priced in by markets, will be revealed in the minutes of the board’s October decision.
The central bank took its foot off the accelerator in October after four consecutive 0.5 percentage point hikes that have driven up the cost of mortgage repayments for homeowners.
JP Morgan economists expect the minutes to reflect the bank’s data-driven approach to monetary decision-making when they are released on Tuesday.
October employment figures and September-quarter inflation are the notable data releases ahead of the November interest rates decision, with jobless figures due on Thursday and the quarterly consumer price index to be released next week.
Westpac economists have warned the surprise shift to 25 basis points in October could have unintended consequences.
The concern is that the RBA’s decision may have boosted confidence and delayed the slowdown in demand, keeping inflation higher for longer.
RBA assistant governor Michele Bullock is also due to make a speech on Reserve Bank policy making at the Australian Finance Industry Association conference in Sydney.
– AAP